Sunday, May 24, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Obama and Netanyahu
May 22, 2009
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's visit with US President Barack Obama at the White House on Monday was baptism of fire for Israel's new premier. What emerged from the meeting is that Obama's priorities regarding Iran, Israel and the Arab world are diametrically opposed to Israel's priorities. During his ad-hoc press conference with Netanyahu, Obama made clear that he will not lift a finger to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. And acting as Obama's surrogate, for the past two weeks CIA Director Leon Panetta has made clear that Obama expects Israel to also sit on its thumbs as Iran develops the means to destroy it.
Obama showed his hand on Iran in three ways. First, he set a non-binding timetable of seven months for his policy of appeasement and engagement of the ayatollahs to work. That policy, he explained will only be implemented after next month's Iranian presidential elections. And those direct US-Iranian talks must be given at least six months to show results before they can be assessed as successful or failed.
But Israel's military intelligence has assessed that six months may be too long to wait. By the end of the year, Iran's nuclear program may be unstoppable. And Iran's successful test of its solid fuel Sejil-2 missile with a two thousand kilometer range on Wednesday merely served to show the urgency of the situation. Obviously the mullahs are not waiting for Obama to convince them of the error of their ways.
Beyond the fact that Obama's nonbinding timeline is too long, there is his "or else." Obama made clear that in the event that in December or January he concludes that the Iranians are not negotiating in good faith, the most radical step he will be willing to take will be to consider escalating international sanctions against Teheran. In the meantime, at his urging, Congressman Howard Berman, Chairman of the House International Affairs Committee has tabled a bill requiring sanctions against oil companies that export refined fuel into Iran.
Finally there was Obama's contention that the best way for the US to convince Iran to give up its nuclear program is by convincing Israel to give away more land to the Palestinians. As Obama put it, "To the extent that we can make peace with the Palestinians -- between the Palestinians and the Israelis, then I actually think it strengthens our hand in the international community in dealing with a potential Iranian threat."
This statement encapsulates the basic lack of seriousness and fundamental mendacity of Obama's approach to "dealing with a potential Iranian threat." Iran has made clear that it wants Israel destroyed. The mullahs don't care how big Israel is. Their missiles are pointing at Tel Aviv not Beit El.
As for the international community, the Russians and Chinese have not been assisting Iran's nuclear and missile programs for the past fifteen years because there is no Palestinian state. They have been assisting Iran because they think a strong Iran weakens the US. And they are right.
The Arab states, for their part are already openly siding with Israel against Iran. The establishment of a Palestinian state will not make their support for action to prevent Iran from acquiring the means to dominate the region any more profound.
On the face of it, Obama's obsessive push for a Palestinian state makes little sense. The Palestinians are hopelessly divided. It is not simply that Hamas rules the Gaza Strip and Fatah controls Judea and Samaria. Fatah itself is riven by division. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's appointment of the new PA government under Salam Fayyad was overwhelmingly rejected by Fatah leaders. Quite simply, today there is no coherent Palestinian leadership that is either willing or capable of reaching an accord with Israel.
And as for the prospects for peace itself, given that there is little distinction between the anti-Semitic bilge broadcast daily in Gaza by Hamas-controlled media, and the anti-Semitic bilge broadcast daily in Judea and Samaria by the Fatah/Abbas/Fayyad-controlled media, those prospects aren't looking particularly attractive. That across-the-board anti-Semitic incitement has engendered the current situation where Hamas and Fatah members and supporters are firmly united in their desire to see Israel destroyed. This was made clear on Thursday morning when a Fatah policeman in Kalkilya used his US-provided rifle to open fire on IDF forces engaged in a counter-terror operation in the city.
Given that the establishment of a Palestinian state will have no impact on Iran's nuclear program, and in light of the fact that under the present circumstances any Palestinian state will be at war against Israel, and assuming that Obama is not completely ignorant of the situation on the ground, there is only one reasonable explanation for Obama's urgent desire to force Israel support the creation of a Palestinian state and work for its establishment by expelling hundreds of thousands of Israelis from their homes. Quite simply, it is a way to divert attention away from Obama's acquiescence to Iran's nuclear aspirations.
By making the achievement of the unachievable goal of making peace between Israel and the Palestinians through the establishment of a Palestinian terror state the centerpiece of his Middle East agenda, Obama is able to cast Israel as the region's villain. This aim is reflected in the administration's intensifying pressure on Israel to destroy Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria. In portraying Jews who live in mobile homes on barren hilltops in Judea and Samaria -- rather than Iranian mullahs who test ballistic missile while enriching uranium and inciting genocide -- as the greatest obstacle to peace, the Obama administration not only seeks to deflect attention away from its refusal to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. It is also setting Israel up as the fall guy who it will blamed after Iran emerges as a nuclear power.
Obama's intention to unveil his Middle East peace plan in the course of his speech to the Muslim world in Cairo on June 4, like his decision to opt out of visiting Israel in favor of visiting a Nazi death camp, make clear that he does not perceive Israel as either a vital ally or even as a partner in the peace process he wishes to initiate. Israeli officials were not consulted about his plan. Then too, from the emerging contours of his plan, it is clear that he will be offering something that no Israeli government can accept.
According to media reports, Obama's plan will require Israel to withdraw its citizens and its military to the indefensible 1949 armistice lines. It will provide for the free immigration of millions of Israel-hating Arabs to the Palestinian state. And it seeks to represent all of this as in accord with Israel's interests by claiming that after Israel renders itself indefensible, all 57 members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (including Iran) will "normalize" their relations with Israel. In short, Obama is using his peace plan to castigate the Netanyahu government as the chief destabilizing force in the region.
During his meeting with Obama, Netanyahu succeeded in evading the policy traps Obama set for him. Netanyahu reserved Israel's right to act independently against Iran and he conceded nothing substantive on the Palestinian issue. While itself no small achievement, Netanyahu's successful deflection of Obama's provocations are not a sustainable strategy. Already on Tuesday the administration began coercing Israel to toe its line on Iran and the Palestinians by engaging it in joint "working groups." Then too, the government's destruction of an outpost community in Judea on Thursday was perceived as Israeli buckling to US pressure. And it doubtlessly raised expectations for further expulsions in the near future.
So what must Netanyahu do? What would a strategy to contain the Obama administration's pressure and maintain international attention on Iran look like?
Under the present circumstances, the Netanyahu government's best bet is to introduce its own peace plan to mitigate the impact of Obama's plan. To blunt the impact of Obama's speech in Cairo, Netanyahu should present his peace plan before June 4.
Such a plan should contain three stages. First, in light of the Arab world's apparent willingness to engage with Israel, Netanyahu should call for the opening of direct talks between Israel and the Arab League or Israel and the OIC regarding the immediate normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab-Islamic world. Both Obama and Jordan's King Abdullah claim that such normalization is in the offing. Israel should insist that it begin without delay.
This of course is necessary for peace to emerge with the Palestinians. As we saw at Camp David in 2000, the only way that Palestinian leaders will feel comfortable making peace with Israel is if the Arab world first demonstrates its acceptance of the Jewish state as a permanent feature on the Middle East's landscape. Claims that such an Israeli demand is a mere tactic for buying time can be easily brushed off. Given Jordanian and American claims that the Arab world is willing to accept Israel, once negotiations begin, this stage could be completed in a matter of months.
The second stage of the Israeli peace plan would involve Israel and the Arab world agreeing and beginning to implement a joint program for combating terrorism. This program would involve destroying terror networks, cutting off funding for terror networks, and agreeing to arrest terrorists and extradite them to the Hague or the US for trial. It should be abundantly clear to all governments in the region that there can be no long term regional peace or stability for as long as terrorists bent on destroying Israel and overthrowing moderate Arab regimes are allowed to operate. So making the implementation of such a join program a precondition for further progress shouldn't pose an obstacle to peace. Indeed, there is no reason for it to even be perceived as particularly controversial.
The final stage of the Israeli peace plan should be the negotiation of a final status accord with the Palestinians. Only after the Arab world has accepted Israel, and only after it has agreed to join Israel in achieving the common goal of a terror-free Middle East can there be any chance that the Palestinians will feel comfortable and free to peacefully coexist with Israel. And Israel, of course, will feel much more confident about living at peace with the Palestinians after the Arab world demonstrates its good faith and friendship to the Jewish state and its people.
Were Netanyahu to offer this plan in the next two weeks, he would be able to elude Obama's trap on June 4 by proposing to discuss both plans with the Arab League. In so doing, he would be able to continue to make the case that Iran is the gravest danger to the region without being demonized as a destabilizing force and an enemy of peace.
Whether Netanyahu advances such a peace plan or not, what became obvious this week is that his greatest challenges in office will be to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons while preventing the Obama administration from blaming Israel for the absence of peace.
http://www.JewishWorldReview.com | Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's visit with US President Barack Obama at the White House on Monday was baptism of fire for Israel's new premier. What emerged from the meeting is that Obama's priorities regarding Iran, Israel and the Arab world are diametrically opposed to Israel's priorities. During his ad-hoc press conference with Netanyahu, Obama made clear that he will not lift a finger to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. And acting as Obama's surrogate, for the past two weeks CIA Director Leon Panetta has made clear that Obama expects Israel to also sit on its thumbs as Iran develops the means to destroy it.
Obama showed his hand on Iran in three ways. First, he set a non-binding timetable of seven months for his policy of appeasement and engagement of the ayatollahs to work. That policy, he explained will only be implemented after next month's Iranian presidential elections. And those direct US-Iranian talks must be given at least six months to show results before they can be assessed as successful or failed.
But Israel's military intelligence has assessed that six months may be too long to wait. By the end of the year, Iran's nuclear program may be unstoppable. And Iran's successful test of its solid fuel Sejil-2 missile with a two thousand kilometer range on Wednesday merely served to show the urgency of the situation. Obviously the mullahs are not waiting for Obama to convince them of the error of their ways.
Beyond the fact that Obama's nonbinding timeline is too long, there is his "or else." Obama made clear that in the event that in December or January he concludes that the Iranians are not negotiating in good faith, the most radical step he will be willing to take will be to consider escalating international sanctions against Teheran. In the meantime, at his urging, Congressman Howard Berman, Chairman of the House International Affairs Committee has tabled a bill requiring sanctions against oil companies that export refined fuel into Iran.
Finally there was Obama's contention that the best way for the US to convince Iran to give up its nuclear program is by convincing Israel to give away more land to the Palestinians. As Obama put it, "To the extent that we can make peace with the Palestinians -- between the Palestinians and the Israelis, then I actually think it strengthens our hand in the international community in dealing with a potential Iranian threat."
This statement encapsulates the basic lack of seriousness and fundamental mendacity of Obama's approach to "dealing with a potential Iranian threat." Iran has made clear that it wants Israel destroyed. The mullahs don't care how big Israel is. Their missiles are pointing at Tel Aviv not Beit El.
As for the international community, the Russians and Chinese have not been assisting Iran's nuclear and missile programs for the past fifteen years because there is no Palestinian state. They have been assisting Iran because they think a strong Iran weakens the US. And they are right.
The Arab states, for their part are already openly siding with Israel against Iran. The establishment of a Palestinian state will not make their support for action to prevent Iran from acquiring the means to dominate the region any more profound.
On the face of it, Obama's obsessive push for a Palestinian state makes little sense. The Palestinians are hopelessly divided. It is not simply that Hamas rules the Gaza Strip and Fatah controls Judea and Samaria. Fatah itself is riven by division. Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's appointment of the new PA government under Salam Fayyad was overwhelmingly rejected by Fatah leaders. Quite simply, today there is no coherent Palestinian leadership that is either willing or capable of reaching an accord with Israel.
And as for the prospects for peace itself, given that there is little distinction between the anti-Semitic bilge broadcast daily in Gaza by Hamas-controlled media, and the anti-Semitic bilge broadcast daily in Judea and Samaria by the Fatah/Abbas/Fayyad-controlled media, those prospects aren't looking particularly attractive. That across-the-board anti-Semitic incitement has engendered the current situation where Hamas and Fatah members and supporters are firmly united in their desire to see Israel destroyed. This was made clear on Thursday morning when a Fatah policeman in Kalkilya used his US-provided rifle to open fire on IDF forces engaged in a counter-terror operation in the city.
Given that the establishment of a Palestinian state will have no impact on Iran's nuclear program, and in light of the fact that under the present circumstances any Palestinian state will be at war against Israel, and assuming that Obama is not completely ignorant of the situation on the ground, there is only one reasonable explanation for Obama's urgent desire to force Israel support the creation of a Palestinian state and work for its establishment by expelling hundreds of thousands of Israelis from their homes. Quite simply, it is a way to divert attention away from Obama's acquiescence to Iran's nuclear aspirations.
By making the achievement of the unachievable goal of making peace between Israel and the Palestinians through the establishment of a Palestinian terror state the centerpiece of his Middle East agenda, Obama is able to cast Israel as the region's villain. This aim is reflected in the administration's intensifying pressure on Israel to destroy Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria. In portraying Jews who live in mobile homes on barren hilltops in Judea and Samaria -- rather than Iranian mullahs who test ballistic missile while enriching uranium and inciting genocide -- as the greatest obstacle to peace, the Obama administration not only seeks to deflect attention away from its refusal to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. It is also setting Israel up as the fall guy who it will blamed after Iran emerges as a nuclear power.
Obama's intention to unveil his Middle East peace plan in the course of his speech to the Muslim world in Cairo on June 4, like his decision to opt out of visiting Israel in favor of visiting a Nazi death camp, make clear that he does not perceive Israel as either a vital ally or even as a partner in the peace process he wishes to initiate. Israeli officials were not consulted about his plan. Then too, from the emerging contours of his plan, it is clear that he will be offering something that no Israeli government can accept.
According to media reports, Obama's plan will require Israel to withdraw its citizens and its military to the indefensible 1949 armistice lines. It will provide for the free immigration of millions of Israel-hating Arabs to the Palestinian state. And it seeks to represent all of this as in accord with Israel's interests by claiming that after Israel renders itself indefensible, all 57 members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (including Iran) will "normalize" their relations with Israel. In short, Obama is using his peace plan to castigate the Netanyahu government as the chief destabilizing force in the region.
During his meeting with Obama, Netanyahu succeeded in evading the policy traps Obama set for him. Netanyahu reserved Israel's right to act independently against Iran and he conceded nothing substantive on the Palestinian issue. While itself no small achievement, Netanyahu's successful deflection of Obama's provocations are not a sustainable strategy. Already on Tuesday the administration began coercing Israel to toe its line on Iran and the Palestinians by engaging it in joint "working groups." Then too, the government's destruction of an outpost community in Judea on Thursday was perceived as Israeli buckling to US pressure. And it doubtlessly raised expectations for further expulsions in the near future.
So what must Netanyahu do? What would a strategy to contain the Obama administration's pressure and maintain international attention on Iran look like?
Under the present circumstances, the Netanyahu government's best bet is to introduce its own peace plan to mitigate the impact of Obama's plan. To blunt the impact of Obama's speech in Cairo, Netanyahu should present his peace plan before June 4.
Such a plan should contain three stages. First, in light of the Arab world's apparent willingness to engage with Israel, Netanyahu should call for the opening of direct talks between Israel and the Arab League or Israel and the OIC regarding the immediate normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab-Islamic world. Both Obama and Jordan's King Abdullah claim that such normalization is in the offing. Israel should insist that it begin without delay.
This of course is necessary for peace to emerge with the Palestinians. As we saw at Camp David in 2000, the only way that Palestinian leaders will feel comfortable making peace with Israel is if the Arab world first demonstrates its acceptance of the Jewish state as a permanent feature on the Middle East's landscape. Claims that such an Israeli demand is a mere tactic for buying time can be easily brushed off. Given Jordanian and American claims that the Arab world is willing to accept Israel, once negotiations begin, this stage could be completed in a matter of months.
The second stage of the Israeli peace plan would involve Israel and the Arab world agreeing and beginning to implement a joint program for combating terrorism. This program would involve destroying terror networks, cutting off funding for terror networks, and agreeing to arrest terrorists and extradite them to the Hague or the US for trial. It should be abundantly clear to all governments in the region that there can be no long term regional peace or stability for as long as terrorists bent on destroying Israel and overthrowing moderate Arab regimes are allowed to operate. So making the implementation of such a join program a precondition for further progress shouldn't pose an obstacle to peace. Indeed, there is no reason for it to even be perceived as particularly controversial.
The final stage of the Israeli peace plan should be the negotiation of a final status accord with the Palestinians. Only after the Arab world has accepted Israel, and only after it has agreed to join Israel in achieving the common goal of a terror-free Middle East can there be any chance that the Palestinians will feel comfortable and free to peacefully coexist with Israel. And Israel, of course, will feel much more confident about living at peace with the Palestinians after the Arab world demonstrates its good faith and friendship to the Jewish state and its people.
Were Netanyahu to offer this plan in the next two weeks, he would be able to elude Obama's trap on June 4 by proposing to discuss both plans with the Arab League. In so doing, he would be able to continue to make the case that Iran is the gravest danger to the region without being demonized as a destabilizing force and an enemy of peace.
Whether Netanyahu advances such a peace plan or not, what became obvious this week is that his greatest challenges in office will be to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons while preventing the Obama administration from blaming Israel for the absence of peace.
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
aipac upDATE
www.aipac.org May 20, 2009
Obama: Talks Cannot Be Excuse for Iranian Inaction
76 Senators Urge Obama to Adhere to Peace Principles
Iran Test-Fires New Long-Range Missile
Obama to Newsweek: I Understand Israeli Fear of Iran
House Approves $555 Million in Security Aid for Israel
Israeli Teen Aims to Transform Car Industry
take action!
Affect Israel's future and promote U.S. interests in the Middle East by urging your members of Congress to support critical legislation.
Click here to learn about these important initiatives and to email your elected representatives.
Learn more
Click here for AIPAC analysis of issues affecting the U.S.-Israel alliance.
Photo
Obama: Talks Cannot Be Excuse for Iranian Inaction
President Barack Obama welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House on Monday, telling the Israeli leader that he expected to know by the end of the year whether Iran was making "a good-faith effort to resolve differences" in talks aimed at ending its nuclear program, The New York Times reported. "We're not going to have talks forever," Obama said. "We're not going to create a situation in which the talks become an excuse for inaction while Iran proceeds with developing" a nuclear weapon. The president added that the United States is "not foreclosing a range of steps, including much stronger international sanctions, in assuring that Iran understands that we are serious." U.S. and European officials have privately said that if Iran fails to begin serious talks by September or October, the administration and its allies will shift direction and seek to impose tough sanctions on Iran.
76 Senators Urge Obama to Adhere to Peace Principles
Seventy-six members of the Senate on Tuesday sent a letter to President Obama supporting U.S. efforts to help Israel achieve peace with all its neighbors and urging the president to adhere to the principles that have successfully led to peace treaties between Israel and both Egypt and Jordan. These key principles include supporting direct, bilateral negotiations between the parties, remaining both a trusted mediator between the parties and a devoted friend to Israel, and insisting on an absolute Palestinian commitment to end incitement and violence against Israel. The senators also urged the president to promote a greater role for the Arab states in promoting peace efforts. The letter was spearheaded by Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Arlen Specter (D-PA) and John Thune (R-SD). Members of the House are circulating a similar letter, which has 224 signatories as of Wednesday afternoon.
Iran Test-Fires New Long-Range Missile
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday that Iran had test-fired an upgraded surface-to-surface missile with a range of about 1,200 miles, far enough to strike Israel, parts of Europe and U.S. bases in the Middle East, The New York Times reported. "The Sejil-2 missile, which has an advanced technology, was launched today," Ahmadinejad said. "It landed exactly on target." Secretary of Defense Robert Gates later confirmed that the Iranian missile test was successful. Last November, Iran said it test-fired a missile called the Sejil, a forerunner to the Sejil-2, also with a range of 1,200 miles—almost as far as another Iranian missile called Shahab-3. At the time, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said the missile "can be produced and stored in mass and is easy to prepare launching and immediately remove the launcher from the scene."
Obama to Newsweek: I Understand Israeli Fear of Iran
In advance of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, President Barack Obama said that he understands the Israeli fear of a nuclear-armed Iran. "I understand very clearly that Israel considers Iran an existential threat, and given some of the statements that have been made by President Ahmadinejad, you can understand why," Obama said in an interview with Newsweek. "So their calculation of costs and benefits are going to be more acute. They're right there in range and I don't think it's my place to determine for the Israelis what their security needs are." Obama added that he is "not naïve about the difficulties" of engagement with Iran, saying such a policy will strengthen the U.S. position in mobilizing the international community if Tehran continues on its current path.
House Approves $555 Million in Security Aid for Israel
The House last week approved $555 million in security aid to Israel as part of an emergency supplemental spending bill to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other key national security efforts. The aid will fund a portion of President Obama's request of $2.775 billion in security assistance for Israel in fiscal year 2010 as called for by the 2007 U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding. The remaining $2.22 billion of the request is expected to be funded in the fiscal year 2010 foreign aid bill. The supplemental bill also includes $556 million in economic support and $106 million in security assistance to the Palestinian Authority. The bill contains conditions stating that no U.S. aid can be provided to a Hamas-Fatah unity government unless all ministers in that government have accepted—publicly and in writing—the three Quartet conditions: recognizing Israel, renouncing terrorism and accepting previous agreements.
Israeli Teen Aims to Transform Car Industry
An Israeli teenager has developed a small device that can reduce a car's gasoline consumption by up to 40 percent, boost the power of the car and reduce air pollution, Israel 21c reported. The teen, Zion Badash, has car manufacturers lining up to buy his invention. The device changes, for a fraction of a second, the way air behaves when going into the combustion chamber. This change allows the engine to use air more efficiently, saving fuel and giving more thrust at the same time. What Badash's alloy is made from remains a secret, but road tests on emissions show that it certainly does work. It can be fitted to new cars, or old ones, diesel, hybrid, buses—basically any combustion engine, even power plants. Click here to learn more about the invention.
Obama: Talks Cannot Be Excuse for Iranian Inaction
76 Senators Urge Obama to Adhere to Peace Principles
Iran Test-Fires New Long-Range Missile
Obama to Newsweek: I Understand Israeli Fear of Iran
House Approves $555 Million in Security Aid for Israel
Israeli Teen Aims to Transform Car Industry
take action!
Affect Israel's future and promote U.S. interests in the Middle East by urging your members of Congress to support critical legislation.
Click here to learn about these important initiatives and to email your elected representatives.
Learn more
Click here for AIPAC analysis of issues affecting the U.S.-Israel alliance.
Photo
Obama: Talks Cannot Be Excuse for Iranian Inaction
President Barack Obama welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House on Monday, telling the Israeli leader that he expected to know by the end of the year whether Iran was making "a good-faith effort to resolve differences" in talks aimed at ending its nuclear program, The New York Times reported. "We're not going to have talks forever," Obama said. "We're not going to create a situation in which the talks become an excuse for inaction while Iran proceeds with developing" a nuclear weapon. The president added that the United States is "not foreclosing a range of steps, including much stronger international sanctions, in assuring that Iran understands that we are serious." U.S. and European officials have privately said that if Iran fails to begin serious talks by September or October, the administration and its allies will shift direction and seek to impose tough sanctions on Iran.
76 Senators Urge Obama to Adhere to Peace Principles
Seventy-six members of the Senate on Tuesday sent a letter to President Obama supporting U.S. efforts to help Israel achieve peace with all its neighbors and urging the president to adhere to the principles that have successfully led to peace treaties between Israel and both Egypt and Jordan. These key principles include supporting direct, bilateral negotiations between the parties, remaining both a trusted mediator between the parties and a devoted friend to Israel, and insisting on an absolute Palestinian commitment to end incitement and violence against Israel. The senators also urged the president to promote a greater role for the Arab states in promoting peace efforts. The letter was spearheaded by Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Arlen Specter (D-PA) and John Thune (R-SD). Members of the House are circulating a similar letter, which has 224 signatories as of Wednesday afternoon.
Iran Test-Fires New Long-Range Missile
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday that Iran had test-fired an upgraded surface-to-surface missile with a range of about 1,200 miles, far enough to strike Israel, parts of Europe and U.S. bases in the Middle East, The New York Times reported. "The Sejil-2 missile, which has an advanced technology, was launched today," Ahmadinejad said. "It landed exactly on target." Secretary of Defense Robert Gates later confirmed that the Iranian missile test was successful. Last November, Iran said it test-fired a missile called the Sejil, a forerunner to the Sejil-2, also with a range of 1,200 miles—almost as far as another Iranian missile called Shahab-3. At the time, Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said the missile "can be produced and stored in mass and is easy to prepare launching and immediately remove the launcher from the scene."
Obama to Newsweek: I Understand Israeli Fear of Iran
In advance of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington, President Barack Obama said that he understands the Israeli fear of a nuclear-armed Iran. "I understand very clearly that Israel considers Iran an existential threat, and given some of the statements that have been made by President Ahmadinejad, you can understand why," Obama said in an interview with Newsweek. "So their calculation of costs and benefits are going to be more acute. They're right there in range and I don't think it's my place to determine for the Israelis what their security needs are." Obama added that he is "not naïve about the difficulties" of engagement with Iran, saying such a policy will strengthen the U.S. position in mobilizing the international community if Tehran continues on its current path.
House Approves $555 Million in Security Aid for Israel
The House last week approved $555 million in security aid to Israel as part of an emergency supplemental spending bill to fund military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other key national security efforts. The aid will fund a portion of President Obama's request of $2.775 billion in security assistance for Israel in fiscal year 2010 as called for by the 2007 U.S.-Israel Memorandum of Understanding. The remaining $2.22 billion of the request is expected to be funded in the fiscal year 2010 foreign aid bill. The supplemental bill also includes $556 million in economic support and $106 million in security assistance to the Palestinian Authority. The bill contains conditions stating that no U.S. aid can be provided to a Hamas-Fatah unity government unless all ministers in that government have accepted—publicly and in writing—the three Quartet conditions: recognizing Israel, renouncing terrorism and accepting previous agreements.
Israeli Teen Aims to Transform Car Industry
An Israeli teenager has developed a small device that can reduce a car's gasoline consumption by up to 40 percent, boost the power of the car and reduce air pollution, Israel 21c reported. The teen, Zion Badash, has car manufacturers lining up to buy his invention. The device changes, for a fraction of a second, the way air behaves when going into the combustion chamber. This change allows the engine to use air more efficiently, saving fuel and giving more thrust at the same time. What Badash's alloy is made from remains a secret, but road tests on emissions show that it certainly does work. It can be fitted to new cars, or old ones, diesel, hybrid, buses—basically any combustion engine, even power plants. Click here to learn more about the invention.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Monday, May 18, 2009
Daily alert
Prepared for the
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations
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DAILY ALERT Monday,
May 18, 2009
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In-Depth Issues:
Israel, PA Hold Secret Meetings over Renewing Peace Talks - Avi Issacharoff (Ha'aretz)
Israel and the Palestinian Authority have launched discreet contacts recently regarding a renewal of negotiations.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Israel's Secret War with Iran - Ronen Bergman (Wall Street Journal)
During the last four years, the uranium enrichment project in Iran was delayed by a series of apparent accidents: the disappearance of an Iranian nuclear scientist, the crash of two planes carrying cargo relating to the project, and two labs that burst into flames.
In July 2007, a mysterious accident occurred in a missile factory jointly operated by Iran and Syria at a Syrian site called Al-Safir. The production line - which armed Scud missiles with warheads - was shut down and many were killed.
In January 2009, Israeli Hermes 450 drones attacked three convoys in Sudan that were smuggling weapons from Iran to the Gaza Strip.
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U.S. Has Plan to Secure Pakistan Nukes if Country Falls to Taliban - Rowan Scarborough (FOX News)
The U.S. has a detailed plan for infiltrating Pakistan and securing its mobile arsenal of nuclear warheads if it appears the country is about to fall under the control of the Taliban, al-Qaeda or other Islamic extremists.
American intelligence sources say the operation would be conducted by Joint Special Operations Command, a super-secret commando unit that is the military's chief terrorists hunting squad.
"We have plans to secure them ourselves if things get out of hand," said a U.S. intelligence source who has deployed to Afghanistan. "Small units could seize them, disable them and then centralize them in a secure location."
See also Pakistan Is Rapidly Adding Nuclear Arms, U.S. Says - Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger (New York Times)
Washington is increasingly focused on trying to assure the security of an arsenal of 80 to 100 weapons so that they will never fall into the hands of Islamic insurgents.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Palestinian Infighting Blocks Gazans Seeking Medical Treatment - Diaa Hadid (AP)
A sick child in Gaza died on Sunday after Palestinian infighting prevented his parents from seeking medical treatment abroad for their 10-year-old cancer-stricken son.
A medical committee that handles requests from the seriously ill to travel abroad for treatment halted work in March after Hamas sought to seize control of it.
The World Health Organization has said eight such patients died by the end of April.
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Oman Seeks Cooperation with Iran - Michael Slackman (New York Times)
The Sultanate of Oman has accelerated its cooperation with Tehran, defying overtures from Egypt and Saudi Arabia to pull away from Iran.
Oman, like Syria and Qatar, sees in Iran an important political and economic ally that is too powerful and too potentially dangerous to ignore, let alone antagonize.
The close ties between Iran and Oman help explain the West's failure to cripple Iran with trade sanctions.
Oman has for years helped Iranian smugglers circumvent international trade sanctions, with fleets of speedboats crossing the Strait of Hormuz daily, making the trip between Iran and Oman in under an hour. Oman collects taxes on all the goods.
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You can now use Google Search to explore seven years of back issues of Daily Alert - Israel News, which has been offering 100 linked excerpts each week from the mainstream world media on Israeli security and Islamic terrorism issues since May 2002.
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Differences Unlikely to Come to Fore at Obama, Netanyahu White House Meeting - Glenn Kessler
Analysts and government officials expect no fireworks when President Obama meets one on one with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office on Monday. The Obama administration has only the wisps of a policy toward the Middle East in place. With the Palestinians weak and divided, and the new Israeli government skeptical of high-profile peace efforts, many key strategic questions remain unanswered.
The Obama administration appears eager to coax small but symbolic confidence-building measures from all sides, especially Arab states, to build up a sense of momentum. Vice President Biden declared earlier this month: "Now is the time for Arab states to make meaningful gestures, to show the Israeli leadership and the people that the promise of ending Israel's isolation in the region is real and genuine. They must take action now." (Washington Post)
Obama: It's Not My Place to Determine for the Israelis What Their Security Needs Are
Asked about Prime Minister Netanyahu's upcoming visit and concerns about Iran, President Obama said in an interview: "I don't take any options off the table with respect to Iran. I don't take options off the table when it comes to U.S. security, period. What I have said is that we want to offer Iran an opportunity to align itself with international norms and international rules. I think, ultimately, that will be better for the Iranian people. I think that there is the ability of an Islamic Republic of Iran to maintain its Islamic character while, at the same time, being a member in good standing of the international community and not a threat to its neighbors. And we are going to reach out to them and try to shift off of a pattern over the last 30 years that hasn't produced results in the region."
"Now, will it work? We don't know. And I assure you, I'm not naive about the difficulties of a process like this. If it doesn't work, the fact that we have tried will strengthen our position in mobilizing the international community, and Iran will have isolated itself, as opposed to a perception that it seeks to advance that somehow it's being victimized by a U.S. government that doesn't respect Iran's sovereignty."
"I understand very clearly that Israel considers Iran an existential threat, and given some of the statements that have been made by President Ahmadinejad, you can understand why. So their calculation of costs and benefits are going to be more acute. They're right there in range and I don't think it's my place to determine for the Israelis what their security needs are. I can make an argument to Israel as an ally that the approach we are taking is one that has to be given a chance and offers the prospect of security, not just for the United States but also for Israel, that is superior to some of the other alternatives." (Newsweek)
Hamas Says Israel Recognition Not for Discussion - Jailan Zayan
The Islamist Hamas movement said on Saturday that it will not discuss the recognition of Israel with Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party during reconciliation talks in Cairo. "We can discuss with Fatah all the options...except the American card which stresses recognition of the Zionist entity and the conditions of the Quartet," Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhum said in Gaza. "This is not open for discussion." The Quartet has long demanded that Hamas renounce violence and recognize Israel and past peace agreements as a precondition for dealing with any Palestinian government in which the Islamist movement is represented. (AFP)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Obama, Netanyahu to Focus on Iran Threat - Barak Ravid and Natasha Mozgovaya
Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama will discuss the threat posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions, National Security Council head Uzi Arad, a close aide to Netanyahu, said Sunday. "This is an existential matter. Iran is constantly advancing toward a nuclear capability, and joint efforts with the [Obama] administration to prevent this will be at the center of the discussion." "There is no subject more important to Israel, and the administration knows this," Arad added. "There is a sense of urgency and that time is against us."
On the matter of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, Arad cited the takeover of Gaza by Hamas in June 2007. "That is the presence of a huge terrorist infrastructure that was put in place, established precisely at the time when Israel evacuated Gaza and allowed the Palestinians to rule themselves," he said. (Ha'aretz)
Iran to Mass Produce Long-Range Missiles - Yaakov Katz
Iran is in the midst of a multi-year plan to produce 500 missile launchers and over 1,000 missiles with a range of 2,500 km. by 2015. Tehran is believed to currently have an arsenal of 100-200 long-range Shihab missiles that have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers and carry up to one-ton warheads. "The Iranians are making great efforts to obtain a significant number of missiles," said Tal Inbar, head of the Space Research Center at the Fisher Brothers Institute in Herzliya. "They already talk about how one of the ways they will overcome the missile defense systems is by firing salvos of missiles." (Jerusalem Post)
Israel: Syria's Assad Wants Only Peace Process, Not Peace Accord; Strict Sanctions on Iran Could Make Military Action Unnecessary
Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon said Saturday with regard to Syria's President Assad: "What interests Assad is not peace, but rather the peace process. Assad knows very well that he will have to pay for peace with normalization and open his country to the West, which could bring about the toppling of his regime. Assad is only interested in the peace process in order to get his country out of its international isolation and to remove the pressure of the international community." If Assad really wants peace, Ayalon continued, "He must come to the negotiating process without preconditions. It's impossible to desire peace and at the same time support and arm Hizbullah, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad."
With regard to stopping Iran's nuclear plans, Ayalon said: "It's possible to stop Iran, which hasn't yet crossed the 'point of no return,' through diplomatic means. Iran is a very weak state in a shaky situation. They cannot withstand real sanctions; their banks and shipping companies are vulnerable. If the world insists on imposing strict sanctions against them, military action may not be necessary." (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
U.S., Israel Share Strategic Goals - Dore Gold
Will the "two-state solution," which the Obama administration has said it supports, be an enormous sticking point at Monday's summit meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama? The reality is that although Netanyahu has not embraced this formula, he has stated that Israel does not want to rule over the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza. He wants the Palestinians to have all the power necessary to rule themselves, but none of the power to undermine the security of Israel. What that means is that if a Palestinian state were to arise, it would have to be demilitarized and could not sign defense pacts with, say, Iran, allowing it to receive a contingent of Iranian Revolutionary Guards (as Lebanon did in 1982). Instead of waiting for such a situation to arise, Netanyahu is addressing this issue up front. Former Israeli UN Ambassador Dore Gold heads the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. (Los Angeles Times)
Israel's Fears, Amalek's Arsenal - Jeffrey Goldberg
Benjamin Netanyahu faces the daunting task of maintaining Israel's relationship with the U.S., while at the same time forestalling Iran's nuclear program. If Iran gains nuclear capacity, Israel will have judged him a failure as prime minister; if he does serious damage to his country's standing in Washington, he will have failed as well. Netanyahu will have a much more difficult time convincing President Obama that Iran poses an existential threat to America. It is certainly true that a nuclear Iran is not in the best interests of the U.S. It would mean, among other things, the probable beginning of a nuclear arms race in the world's most volatile region, and it would mean that the 30-year-struggle between America and Iran for domination of the Persian Gulf will be over, with Persia the victor. (New York Times)
Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Smart Connection - Oded Eran and Emily B. Landau
A message coming from the Obama administration is that dealing effectively with Iran's nuclear ambitions is contingent on Israel being more forthcoming with regard to peace talks with the Palestinians. Yet Iran is today much higher on the immediate agenda of most of the Arab states in the Persian Gulf as well as Egypt than is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Because of the urgency of the emerging Iranian nuclear threat, they, like Israel, do not have time to wait for success in the Palestinian sphere. The common interest between Israel and these Arab states on Iran is real, and will not disappear if there is not movement toward Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Curtailing Iran's nuclear and regional ambitions is the major issue that must be resolved in the first place. In this regard, Netanyahu's equation that says Iran first, and then the Palestinians, rests on solid ground as far as its basic strategic logic. Oded Eran is the director of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and Emily B. Landau is a senior research associate at the institute. (Jerusalem Post)
Netanyahu and Obama Have a Shared Interest in Iran - Reuel Marc Gerecht
Therese Delpech, a leading nonproliferation expert at France's Atomic Energy Commission, warned last October: "We [the Europeans] have negotiated during five years with the Iranians...and we came to the conclusion that they are not interested at all in negotiating, but...in buying time for their military program."
Never before have the Israelis had to confront a rabidly anti-Semitic enemy with nuclear weapons and a long track record of supporting deadly killers such as Hizbullah and Hamas. Western counsel to Israel to calm down and get used to the idea of mullahs with nukes doesn't sit well with a people who have already lived through the unthinkable. Iran's penchant for terrorism, its extensive ties to both radical Sunnis and Shiites, its vibrant anti-Semitism, and the likelihood that Tehran will become more aggressive with an atom bomb in its arsenal doesn't reinforce the case for patience and perseverance. The writer is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. (Wall Street Journal)
See also Are Obama and Netanyahu Destined to Clash? - David Makovsky (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Observations:
Obama and the Middle East - Hussein Agha and Robert Malley (New York Review of Books)
If the President's objective is to achieve a comprehensive, two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it will be pursued under unusually inauspicious circumstances.
On the Palestinian side, intense Egyptian-mediated reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah have so far failed to stitch the national movement together. Hamas possesses the power to spoil any progress and will use it. It can act as an implacable opponent against any potential Palestinian compromise. Bilateral negotiations that failed when Olmert was prime minister and Hamas was a mere Palestinian faction are unlikely to succeed with Netanyahu at the helm and Hamas having grown into a regional reality.
The other question is what, in short, would a two-state solution actually solve? Peace may be possible without such an agreement just as such an agreement need not necessarily lead to peace. Unlike Zionism, for whom statehood was the central objective, the Palestinian fight was primarily about other matters. The absence of a state was not the cause of all their misfortune. Its creation would not be the full solution either.
Today, the idea of Palestinian statehood is alive, but mainly outside of Palestine. Establishing a state has become a matter of utmost priority for Europeans, for Americans, and even for a large number of Israelis. But universal endorsement has its downside. The more the two-state solution looks like an American or Western, not to mention Israeli, interest, the less it appeals to Palestinians.
There may be another way. Its starting point would be less of an immediate effort to achieve a two-state agreement or propose U.S. ideas to that effect. Rather, it would be an attempt to transform the political atmosphere and reformulate the diplomatic process.
Hussein Agha is Senior Associate Member of St. Antony's College, Oxford. Robert Malley, formerly Special Assistant to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli Affairs, is currently Middle East and North Africa Program Director at the International Crisis Group.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations
by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
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DAILY ALERT Monday,
May 18, 2009
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In-Depth Issues:
Israel, PA Hold Secret Meetings over Renewing Peace Talks - Avi Issacharoff (Ha'aretz)
Israel and the Palestinian Authority have launched discreet contacts recently regarding a renewal of negotiations.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Israel's Secret War with Iran - Ronen Bergman (Wall Street Journal)
During the last four years, the uranium enrichment project in Iran was delayed by a series of apparent accidents: the disappearance of an Iranian nuclear scientist, the crash of two planes carrying cargo relating to the project, and two labs that burst into flames.
In July 2007, a mysterious accident occurred in a missile factory jointly operated by Iran and Syria at a Syrian site called Al-Safir. The production line - which armed Scud missiles with warheads - was shut down and many were killed.
In January 2009, Israeli Hermes 450 drones attacked three convoys in Sudan that were smuggling weapons from Iran to the Gaza Strip.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Has Plan to Secure Pakistan Nukes if Country Falls to Taliban - Rowan Scarborough (FOX News)
The U.S. has a detailed plan for infiltrating Pakistan and securing its mobile arsenal of nuclear warheads if it appears the country is about to fall under the control of the Taliban, al-Qaeda or other Islamic extremists.
American intelligence sources say the operation would be conducted by Joint Special Operations Command, a super-secret commando unit that is the military's chief terrorists hunting squad.
"We have plans to secure them ourselves if things get out of hand," said a U.S. intelligence source who has deployed to Afghanistan. "Small units could seize them, disable them and then centralize them in a secure location."
See also Pakistan Is Rapidly Adding Nuclear Arms, U.S. Says - Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger (New York Times)
Washington is increasingly focused on trying to assure the security of an arsenal of 80 to 100 weapons so that they will never fall into the hands of Islamic insurgents.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Palestinian Infighting Blocks Gazans Seeking Medical Treatment - Diaa Hadid (AP)
A sick child in Gaza died on Sunday after Palestinian infighting prevented his parents from seeking medical treatment abroad for their 10-year-old cancer-stricken son.
A medical committee that handles requests from the seriously ill to travel abroad for treatment halted work in March after Hamas sought to seize control of it.
The World Health Organization has said eight such patients died by the end of April.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oman Seeks Cooperation with Iran - Michael Slackman (New York Times)
The Sultanate of Oman has accelerated its cooperation with Tehran, defying overtures from Egypt and Saudi Arabia to pull away from Iran.
Oman, like Syria and Qatar, sees in Iran an important political and economic ally that is too powerful and too potentially dangerous to ignore, let alone antagonize.
The close ties between Iran and Oman help explain the West's failure to cripple Iran with trade sanctions.
Oman has for years helped Iranian smugglers circumvent international trade sanctions, with fleets of speedboats crossing the Strait of Hormuz daily, making the trip between Iran and Oman in under an hour. Oman collects taxes on all the goods.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Differences Unlikely to Come to Fore at Obama, Netanyahu White House Meeting - Glenn Kessler
Analysts and government officials expect no fireworks when President Obama meets one on one with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office on Monday. The Obama administration has only the wisps of a policy toward the Middle East in place. With the Palestinians weak and divided, and the new Israeli government skeptical of high-profile peace efforts, many key strategic questions remain unanswered.
The Obama administration appears eager to coax small but symbolic confidence-building measures from all sides, especially Arab states, to build up a sense of momentum. Vice President Biden declared earlier this month: "Now is the time for Arab states to make meaningful gestures, to show the Israeli leadership and the people that the promise of ending Israel's isolation in the region is real and genuine. They must take action now." (Washington Post)
Obama: It's Not My Place to Determine for the Israelis What Their Security Needs Are
Asked about Prime Minister Netanyahu's upcoming visit and concerns about Iran, President Obama said in an interview: "I don't take any options off the table with respect to Iran. I don't take options off the table when it comes to U.S. security, period. What I have said is that we want to offer Iran an opportunity to align itself with international norms and international rules. I think, ultimately, that will be better for the Iranian people. I think that there is the ability of an Islamic Republic of Iran to maintain its Islamic character while, at the same time, being a member in good standing of the international community and not a threat to its neighbors. And we are going to reach out to them and try to shift off of a pattern over the last 30 years that hasn't produced results in the region."
"Now, will it work? We don't know. And I assure you, I'm not naive about the difficulties of a process like this. If it doesn't work, the fact that we have tried will strengthen our position in mobilizing the international community, and Iran will have isolated itself, as opposed to a perception that it seeks to advance that somehow it's being victimized by a U.S. government that doesn't respect Iran's sovereignty."
"I understand very clearly that Israel considers Iran an existential threat, and given some of the statements that have been made by President Ahmadinejad, you can understand why. So their calculation of costs and benefits are going to be more acute. They're right there in range and I don't think it's my place to determine for the Israelis what their security needs are. I can make an argument to Israel as an ally that the approach we are taking is one that has to be given a chance and offers the prospect of security, not just for the United States but also for Israel, that is superior to some of the other alternatives." (Newsweek)
Hamas Says Israel Recognition Not for Discussion - Jailan Zayan
The Islamist Hamas movement said on Saturday that it will not discuss the recognition of Israel with Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah party during reconciliation talks in Cairo. "We can discuss with Fatah all the options...except the American card which stresses recognition of the Zionist entity and the conditions of the Quartet," Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhum said in Gaza. "This is not open for discussion." The Quartet has long demanded that Hamas renounce violence and recognize Israel and past peace agreements as a precondition for dealing with any Palestinian government in which the Islamist movement is represented. (AFP)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Obama, Netanyahu to Focus on Iran Threat - Barak Ravid and Natasha Mozgovaya
Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama will discuss the threat posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions, National Security Council head Uzi Arad, a close aide to Netanyahu, said Sunday. "This is an existential matter. Iran is constantly advancing toward a nuclear capability, and joint efforts with the [Obama] administration to prevent this will be at the center of the discussion." "There is no subject more important to Israel, and the administration knows this," Arad added. "There is a sense of urgency and that time is against us."
On the matter of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, Arad cited the takeover of Gaza by Hamas in June 2007. "That is the presence of a huge terrorist infrastructure that was put in place, established precisely at the time when Israel evacuated Gaza and allowed the Palestinians to rule themselves," he said. (Ha'aretz)
Iran to Mass Produce Long-Range Missiles - Yaakov Katz
Iran is in the midst of a multi-year plan to produce 500 missile launchers and over 1,000 missiles with a range of 2,500 km. by 2015. Tehran is believed to currently have an arsenal of 100-200 long-range Shihab missiles that have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers and carry up to one-ton warheads. "The Iranians are making great efforts to obtain a significant number of missiles," said Tal Inbar, head of the Space Research Center at the Fisher Brothers Institute in Herzliya. "They already talk about how one of the ways they will overcome the missile defense systems is by firing salvos of missiles." (Jerusalem Post)
Israel: Syria's Assad Wants Only Peace Process, Not Peace Accord; Strict Sanctions on Iran Could Make Military Action Unnecessary
Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon said Saturday with regard to Syria's President Assad: "What interests Assad is not peace, but rather the peace process. Assad knows very well that he will have to pay for peace with normalization and open his country to the West, which could bring about the toppling of his regime. Assad is only interested in the peace process in order to get his country out of its international isolation and to remove the pressure of the international community." If Assad really wants peace, Ayalon continued, "He must come to the negotiating process without preconditions. It's impossible to desire peace and at the same time support and arm Hizbullah, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad."
With regard to stopping Iran's nuclear plans, Ayalon said: "It's possible to stop Iran, which hasn't yet crossed the 'point of no return,' through diplomatic means. Iran is a very weak state in a shaky situation. They cannot withstand real sanctions; their banks and shipping companies are vulnerable. If the world insists on imposing strict sanctions against them, military action may not be necessary." (Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
U.S., Israel Share Strategic Goals - Dore Gold
Will the "two-state solution," which the Obama administration has said it supports, be an enormous sticking point at Monday's summit meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama? The reality is that although Netanyahu has not embraced this formula, he has stated that Israel does not want to rule over the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza. He wants the Palestinians to have all the power necessary to rule themselves, but none of the power to undermine the security of Israel. What that means is that if a Palestinian state were to arise, it would have to be demilitarized and could not sign defense pacts with, say, Iran, allowing it to receive a contingent of Iranian Revolutionary Guards (as Lebanon did in 1982). Instead of waiting for such a situation to arise, Netanyahu is addressing this issue up front. Former Israeli UN Ambassador Dore Gold heads the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. (Los Angeles Times)
Israel's Fears, Amalek's Arsenal - Jeffrey Goldberg
Benjamin Netanyahu faces the daunting task of maintaining Israel's relationship with the U.S., while at the same time forestalling Iran's nuclear program. If Iran gains nuclear capacity, Israel will have judged him a failure as prime minister; if he does serious damage to his country's standing in Washington, he will have failed as well. Netanyahu will have a much more difficult time convincing President Obama that Iran poses an existential threat to America. It is certainly true that a nuclear Iran is not in the best interests of the U.S. It would mean, among other things, the probable beginning of a nuclear arms race in the world's most volatile region, and it would mean that the 30-year-struggle between America and Iran for domination of the Persian Gulf will be over, with Persia the victor. (New York Times)
Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Smart Connection - Oded Eran and Emily B. Landau
A message coming from the Obama administration is that dealing effectively with Iran's nuclear ambitions is contingent on Israel being more forthcoming with regard to peace talks with the Palestinians. Yet Iran is today much higher on the immediate agenda of most of the Arab states in the Persian Gulf as well as Egypt than is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Because of the urgency of the emerging Iranian nuclear threat, they, like Israel, do not have time to wait for success in the Palestinian sphere. The common interest between Israel and these Arab states on Iran is real, and will not disappear if there is not movement toward Israeli-Palestinian peace.
Curtailing Iran's nuclear and regional ambitions is the major issue that must be resolved in the first place. In this regard, Netanyahu's equation that says Iran first, and then the Palestinians, rests on solid ground as far as its basic strategic logic. Oded Eran is the director of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University and Emily B. Landau is a senior research associate at the institute. (Jerusalem Post)
Netanyahu and Obama Have a Shared Interest in Iran - Reuel Marc Gerecht
Therese Delpech, a leading nonproliferation expert at France's Atomic Energy Commission, warned last October: "We [the Europeans] have negotiated during five years with the Iranians...and we came to the conclusion that they are not interested at all in negotiating, but...in buying time for their military program."
Never before have the Israelis had to confront a rabidly anti-Semitic enemy with nuclear weapons and a long track record of supporting deadly killers such as Hizbullah and Hamas. Western counsel to Israel to calm down and get used to the idea of mullahs with nukes doesn't sit well with a people who have already lived through the unthinkable. Iran's penchant for terrorism, its extensive ties to both radical Sunnis and Shiites, its vibrant anti-Semitism, and the likelihood that Tehran will become more aggressive with an atom bomb in its arsenal doesn't reinforce the case for patience and perseverance. The writer is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. (Wall Street Journal)
See also Are Obama and Netanyahu Destined to Clash? - David Makovsky (Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Observations:
Obama and the Middle East - Hussein Agha and Robert Malley (New York Review of Books)
If the President's objective is to achieve a comprehensive, two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it will be pursued under unusually inauspicious circumstances.
On the Palestinian side, intense Egyptian-mediated reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah have so far failed to stitch the national movement together. Hamas possesses the power to spoil any progress and will use it. It can act as an implacable opponent against any potential Palestinian compromise. Bilateral negotiations that failed when Olmert was prime minister and Hamas was a mere Palestinian faction are unlikely to succeed with Netanyahu at the helm and Hamas having grown into a regional reality.
The other question is what, in short, would a two-state solution actually solve? Peace may be possible without such an agreement just as such an agreement need not necessarily lead to peace. Unlike Zionism, for whom statehood was the central objective, the Palestinian fight was primarily about other matters. The absence of a state was not the cause of all their misfortune. Its creation would not be the full solution either.
Today, the idea of Palestinian statehood is alive, but mainly outside of Palestine. Establishing a state has become a matter of utmost priority for Europeans, for Americans, and even for a large number of Israelis. But universal endorsement has its downside. The more the two-state solution looks like an American or Western, not to mention Israeli, interest, the less it appeals to Palestinians.
There may be another way. Its starting point would be less of an immediate effort to achieve a two-state agreement or propose U.S. ideas to that effect. Rather, it would be an attempt to transform the political atmosphere and reformulate the diplomatic process.
Hussein Agha is Senior Associate Member of St. Antony's College, Oxford. Robert Malley, formerly Special Assistant to President Clinton for Arab-Israeli Affairs, is currently Middle East and North Africa Program Director at the International Crisis Group.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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for the sake of clarity a thought experiment
For the Sake of Clarity - A Thought Experiment
A Jerusalem Post Column
May 15, 2009
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In Perspective: For the sake of clarity, a thought experiment
May. 14, 2009
Daniel Gordis , THE JERUSALEM POST
He was in his 20s, the young man with the question after my lecture. He
couldn't have asked it more kindly or gently. Without a hint of cynicism or
anger, he expressed what was clearly on the minds of many of the people his
age in the crowd: "Can you justify a Jewish state," he wanted to know, "when
having a Jewish state means giving up on so many of Judaism's values?"
Here's what he didn't say: Israel is the root of evil in the Middle East.
It's the cause of checkpoints, of roadblocks, of a big ugly wall that runs
along a border no one has agreed to. The Palestinians are desperate, and in
the massive imbalance of power, they have no chance and no hope. Israel is
the nuclear bully in a region that, were it not for Israel's existence,
would no longer be on the front page. To achieve peace in the Middle East,
Israel just needs to be subdued. Break Israel's intransigence, and we'll
finally see progress.
That was his unspoken claim, and now it's also the position of the Obama
administration. At AIPAC's recent Policy Conference, Vice President Joe
Biden and Sen. John Kerry made it clear that for the US to support Israel on
Iran, Israel must settle the Palestinian problem once and for all. It has
been widely reported that Rahm Emanuel, in an off-the-record session, said
precisely the same thing. After decades of tacit agreement that the US would
remain silent about Israel's nuclear capability, a State Department official
publicly suggested that Israel sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as
if, on the eve of Iran's going nuclear and with Pakistani weapons in danger
of falling into the hands of the Taliban, Israel's nuclear arsenal is the
world's most serious concern.
A new message is afloat - Israel is the problem, and the US has had enough.
Even the pope couldn't help himself. His comments about the victims of the
Holocaust were so tepid as to be outrageous, but he had no problem calling
urgently for an immediate Palestinian state, as if Israelis haven't tried to
create one for decades.
The young American Jews in my audience, clearly struggling with the morality
of a Jewish state, now have the Obama administration and the pope echoing
all their misgivings.
I have no illusions that all this can be changed overnight, but with the
upcoming Binyamin Netanyahu-Barack Obama meetings putting Israel into the
spotlight once again, I'd like to propose the following thought experiment -
at least to these young American Jews, and possibly to Obama himself.
IMAGINE THAT ISRAELIS decide that by Jerusalem Day, this coming week, they
want a deal. So we take down the security fence. We remove the checkpoints.
We open all the roads, and Gaza's sea and air routes. We agree publicly to
return to something closely approximating the pre-1967 borders, and we
accede to the demands that parts of Jerusalem be internationally governed,
or even put under Palestinian control.
Does this end the conflict? Of course it doesn't. The Hamas Charter calls
not only for the destruction of Israel, but for Islamic war on Jews
everywhere. (Why do we consistently refuse to believe that Hamas means what
it says?) What would change? The noose would tighten. The rockets would be
fired from a shorter distance and the demand for the return of refugees
(thus ending the Jewishness of the state) would persist. As was the case
when Israel left Lebanon in May 2000 or Gaza in the summer of 2005, Israel's
enemies would smell a weakened, bloodied state and would prepare for the
next stage of their war.
But peace would not have come. Much as we all want this conflict to end,
does anyone really doubt that? There is, as honest brokers must admit,
nothing that Israel can do to end this conflict.
NOW, HOWEVER, TRY the opposite side of the thought experiment. Imagine that
the Palestinians decide that they have tired of the conflict, or their
electorate begins its long-overdue rebellion and insists on a settlement. So
the Palestinians, Hamas and Fatah, demand everything Israel's agreed to
above - an end to roadblocks and the wall, an opening of Gaza, a bridge or a
tunnel between Gaza and the West Bank and a return to the 1967 borders.
Let's say that they even insist on Palestinian control of east Jerusalem.
But they also recognize Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state. They
agree to an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities and violence
(this is a thought experiment, after all) and insist that any other
outstanding issues be negotiated and resolved with the US and the Quartet as
intermediaries. And they require Israelis to vote within a month, no longer,
on whether to accept the deal.
Will there be Israelis who object? Will there be residents of the West Bank
who will resist leaving their homes? Yes, there will be. But would an
Israeli plebiscite overwhelmingly approve the offer? Without question. In a
matter of weeks, three quarters of a century of bloodshed and suffering
would come to an end.
This, of course, is not going to happen, because all the new rhetoric
notwithstanding, and all the confusion of today's young American Jews aside,
there's always been one party that's sought peace, and another that's
rejected it. It was true in 1948, and it was true in Khartoum. It's no less
true today.
It's never been up to us, and it's always been up to them.
But this simplistic thought experiment is worth considering not because it
can be implemented, but because it brings one unfortunate truth into stark
focus. Young American Jews ought to take note: Israel cannot end this
conflict. It can weaken itself, but the only way it can bring peace to the
region is to go out of business.
If that is what the peacemakers really seek, we'll see that soon enough,
with frightening clarity.
A Jerusalem Post Column
May 15, 2009
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In Perspective: For the sake of clarity, a thought experiment
May. 14, 2009
Daniel Gordis , THE JERUSALEM POST
He was in his 20s, the young man with the question after my lecture. He
couldn't have asked it more kindly or gently. Without a hint of cynicism or
anger, he expressed what was clearly on the minds of many of the people his
age in the crowd: "Can you justify a Jewish state," he wanted to know, "when
having a Jewish state means giving up on so many of Judaism's values?"
Here's what he didn't say: Israel is the root of evil in the Middle East.
It's the cause of checkpoints, of roadblocks, of a big ugly wall that runs
along a border no one has agreed to. The Palestinians are desperate, and in
the massive imbalance of power, they have no chance and no hope. Israel is
the nuclear bully in a region that, were it not for Israel's existence,
would no longer be on the front page. To achieve peace in the Middle East,
Israel just needs to be subdued. Break Israel's intransigence, and we'll
finally see progress.
That was his unspoken claim, and now it's also the position of the Obama
administration. At AIPAC's recent Policy Conference, Vice President Joe
Biden and Sen. John Kerry made it clear that for the US to support Israel on
Iran, Israel must settle the Palestinian problem once and for all. It has
been widely reported that Rahm Emanuel, in an off-the-record session, said
precisely the same thing. After decades of tacit agreement that the US would
remain silent about Israel's nuclear capability, a State Department official
publicly suggested that Israel sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as
if, on the eve of Iran's going nuclear and with Pakistani weapons in danger
of falling into the hands of the Taliban, Israel's nuclear arsenal is the
world's most serious concern.
A new message is afloat - Israel is the problem, and the US has had enough.
Even the pope couldn't help himself. His comments about the victims of the
Holocaust were so tepid as to be outrageous, but he had no problem calling
urgently for an immediate Palestinian state, as if Israelis haven't tried to
create one for decades.
The young American Jews in my audience, clearly struggling with the morality
of a Jewish state, now have the Obama administration and the pope echoing
all their misgivings.
I have no illusions that all this can be changed overnight, but with the
upcoming Binyamin Netanyahu-Barack Obama meetings putting Israel into the
spotlight once again, I'd like to propose the following thought experiment -
at least to these young American Jews, and possibly to Obama himself.
IMAGINE THAT ISRAELIS decide that by Jerusalem Day, this coming week, they
want a deal. So we take down the security fence. We remove the checkpoints.
We open all the roads, and Gaza's sea and air routes. We agree publicly to
return to something closely approximating the pre-1967 borders, and we
accede to the demands that parts of Jerusalem be internationally governed,
or even put under Palestinian control.
Does this end the conflict? Of course it doesn't. The Hamas Charter calls
not only for the destruction of Israel, but for Islamic war on Jews
everywhere. (Why do we consistently refuse to believe that Hamas means what
it says?) What would change? The noose would tighten. The rockets would be
fired from a shorter distance and the demand for the return of refugees
(thus ending the Jewishness of the state) would persist. As was the case
when Israel left Lebanon in May 2000 or Gaza in the summer of 2005, Israel's
enemies would smell a weakened, bloodied state and would prepare for the
next stage of their war.
But peace would not have come. Much as we all want this conflict to end,
does anyone really doubt that? There is, as honest brokers must admit,
nothing that Israel can do to end this conflict.
NOW, HOWEVER, TRY the opposite side of the thought experiment. Imagine that
the Palestinians decide that they have tired of the conflict, or their
electorate begins its long-overdue rebellion and insists on a settlement. So
the Palestinians, Hamas and Fatah, demand everything Israel's agreed to
above - an end to roadblocks and the wall, an opening of Gaza, a bridge or a
tunnel between Gaza and the West Bank and a return to the 1967 borders.
Let's say that they even insist on Palestinian control of east Jerusalem.
But they also recognize Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state. They
agree to an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities and violence
(this is a thought experiment, after all) and insist that any other
outstanding issues be negotiated and resolved with the US and the Quartet as
intermediaries. And they require Israelis to vote within a month, no longer,
on whether to accept the deal.
Will there be Israelis who object? Will there be residents of the West Bank
who will resist leaving their homes? Yes, there will be. But would an
Israeli plebiscite overwhelmingly approve the offer? Without question. In a
matter of weeks, three quarters of a century of bloodshed and suffering
would come to an end.
This, of course, is not going to happen, because all the new rhetoric
notwithstanding, and all the confusion of today's young American Jews aside,
there's always been one party that's sought peace, and another that's
rejected it. It was true in 1948, and it was true in Khartoum. It's no less
true today.
It's never been up to us, and it's always been up to them.
But this simplistic thought experiment is worth considering not because it
can be implemented, but because it brings one unfortunate truth into stark
focus. Young American Jews ought to take note: Israel cannot end this
conflict. It can weaken itself, but the only way it can bring peace to the
region is to go out of business.
If that is what the peacemakers really seek, we'll see that soon enough,
with frightening clarity.
Friday, May 15, 2009
daily alert
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations
by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
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In-Depth Issues:
Report: Iranian Revolutionary Guards Arrested in Egypt - Roee Nahmias (Ynet News)
Egyptian sources told the Lebanese newspaper Almustaqbal that, some five months ago, Egyptian authorities arrested four members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' al-Quds unit who set up an intelligence ring on Egyptian soil.
See also Egypt Finds 266 Rockets in Massive Arms Cache along Israel Border (Reuters/Ha'aretz)
Egyptian security forces have uncovered hundreds of weapons and explosive devices hidden along the Sinai Peninsula's border with Israel, the Arabic-language Al-Quds al-Arabiyeh reported on Friday.
Egyptian forces found 266 rockets, 40 mines, 50 mortar shells, 20 hand grenades and at least three anti-aircraft missiles.
The Mideast Nuclear Arms Scramble - Amir Taheri (New York Post)
Fears that the U.S. intends to let Iran become a nuclear power has sent other Middle Eastern countries shopping around for partners to help them join the nuclear club.
Saudi Arabia announced Sunday that it's reached an "agreement in principle" with France to develop a "nuclear industry for peaceful purposes." It becomes the third Arab country - after Egypt and Qatar - to seek French help in joining the nuclear club.
Iraq also intends to seek a return to the nuclear club. Last month, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki set up an effort to bring together Iraq's nuclear scientists and invite those in exile to return home.
Having triggered the nuclear race, Iran is also playing an active role in proliferation, with signed agreements to help Syria and Venezuela achieve "nuclear capacity."
China is negotiating with Iran to build 20 nuclear power stations over the next decade. With no international control over what happens to the spent fuel generated by those stations, Iran could end up having enough material to make hundreds of bombs.
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French Poll: 73% See Iranian Nukes as Threat - Haviv Rettig Gur (Jerusalem Post)
In a poll in France conducted in April, 35% said they viewed Israel unfavorably, while 21% viewed Israel in a positive light.
The Palestinians enjoy nearly twice as much support (27%) as the Israelis (14%), though even more (32%) said they did not support either side.
Yet more blamed Hamas for Gaza's humanitarian situation (36%) than Israel (26%).
83% feel that a two-state solution is the "only realistic solution" to the conflict, but an identical 83% said it was "not realistic right now."
73% believed an Iranian nuclear weapon would be a threat to France, up from 64% in December 2007.
"Lawfare" Against Israel Complicates the Search for Peace - Josh Goodman (Wall Street Journal Europe)
Last week a Spanish judge decided to pursue an investigation in a case brought by a group of Palestinians accusing Israel of "crimes against humanity" for a 2002 strike against the military leader of Hamas in Gaza.
That strike took place during a year in which waves of suicide bombings rocked Israel's cities. As a result of the war in Gaza last January, Israel expects to face a slew of similar probes and lawsuits in foreign courts.
The misuse of legal concepts in public discourse is often designed to give one-sided criticism of Israel the appearance of a judicious assessment of international law.
Political philosopher Michael Walzer correctly points out that the term "disproportionate violence" as used by many commentators today "is simply violence they don't like, or it is violence committed by people they don't like."
Hamas' Mistake - Guy Bechor (Ynet News)
Hamas leaders believed their own rhetoric and that of Hizbullah. They truly believed that Israel will bow down before them, that it would be scared to enter Gaza, and that it would certainly refrain from going in deep.
Their arrogant and belligerent displays have disappeared. Hamas now understands: It is merely a small organization that jailed itself and its society in a bottle.
In contradiction to its own lies, Hamas sustained a decisive military blow and has trouble recovering from it.
The smuggling tunnel network it built is indeed helping it to get stronger, yet improved Egyptian efforts are making this more difficult.
The Fatal Glitch with "Land for Peace" - George Jonas (National Post-Canada)
The peace plan outlined by Jordan's King Abdullah would entail the gradual recognition of Israel by 57 Arab and/or Muslim countries in return for Israel's gradual withdrawal to its pre-1967 borders. It sounds reasonable, except for three things.
One, 57 Arab/Muslim countries are 56 too many. They aren't likely to agree with each other on the time of day, let alone the recognition of Israel. Is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad going to recognize Israel? And if only one nuclear ayatollah doesn't, what does it matter who does?
Two, the peace-for-land concept has been a historic failure, not because Israel wouldn't dole out land for peace - it has, to all comers, sometimes unasked - but because the Arab/Muslim side won't dole out peace for land.
Three, the Middle East conflict has zip all to do with Israel's 1967 borders. It has to do with Israel's 1948 borders. Had Israel's Arab/Muslim neighbors accepted Israel's 1948 borders, there would be no 1967 borders to dispute today.
The irony of King Abdullah lecturing Israel on a two-state solution isn't lost on anyone who remembers that the Hashemite Kingdom occupies about 80% of the former Palestinian Mandate.
There Are 70 Conflicts Worldwide, So Why Do We Focus on Just One? - Stephen King (Irish Examiner)
The media has a fixation on Israel (and its supposed crimes) which is, for want of a better word, disproportionate. The fact that Israel is the world's one and only Jewish state - amidst a vast ocean of Muslim states - inevitably makes many Jewish people think it's them, and not Israel as such, which is in the media's sights.
The International Crisis Group is currently tracking 70 conflicts around the world, from Afghanistan and Algeria to Yemen and Zimbabwe. So why the obsession with Israel? It's the only country in the world whose existence is queried.
Could it be some wrongheaded notion of guilt for having set up Israel after the Holocaust, when actually Israel fought British imperialism for its independence? Could it be, as many Israelis believe, that we see Israelis as Jews in the latest manifestation of centuries-old anti-Semitism?
Monitoring Anti-Semitism in Europe - Michael Whine (Jewish Political Studies Review)
Governments and the relevant intergovernmental agencies now accept that anti-Semitism and violence against Jewish communities has increased.
The murder of Ilan Halimi in February 2006 in Paris, the torching of synagogues in France and the UK, the continuous cemetery and synagogue desecrations, and the rash of anti-Jewish graffiti throughout Europe, North America, and the former Soviet Union have finally roused governments and agencies to take action.
Awareness of the increase in racist and anti-Semitic violence has led the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union (EU) to adopt moves to monitor and combat the phenomenon.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
* U.S. Envoy Says Iran Top Issue in Mideast - Nicholas Kralev
Iran's nuclear program and its increased regional influence have replaced the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the main concern of governments in the Middle East, the Obama administration's chief envoy for the region said Thursday. Jeffrey D. Feltman, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his confirmation hearing that the fears about Iran have become "the key development in the region." "When you traveled around the [Middle East] five, six, seven years ago, almost everywhere you went, the first thing that came up was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," Feltman said. "When you travel around today, what you are going to hear about is Iran." He reiterated the administration's goal of preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
Feltman called Iran a "spoiler" in the pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace through its support for Hamas, which controls Gaza, and Lebanon's Hizbullah. Nevertheless, he said, "we want to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order to remove one of the tools that Iran uses to distract the region from what Iran is doing." (Washington Times)
See also below Observations: America Must Deal First with the Threat from Iran - Efraim Halevy (Financial Times-UK)
* Israel: Netanyahu's Message in Tune with Obama's - Tobias Buck
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's officials confidently dismiss talk of an impending clash at his keenly awaited first meeting with President Barack Obama. Insisting there is no substantial disagreement between the two men, they suggest Monday's encounter should be a smooth and amicable affair. Netanyahu's message, they say, will be entirely in tune with that of Obama - from the need to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions to Israel's willingness to engage in peace talks with the Palestinians. With regard to the political process, Netanyahu will raise his idea of a "triple-track" approach aimed at achieving parallel progress with the Palestinians on the economic, security and political fronts. (Financial Times-UK)
See also No Crisis Expected in Obama-Netanyahu Talks
Aaron David Miller, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, told AFP: "There is no reason, need...for a fight." Neither side wants a breakdown in trust that would flow from a major crisis. At this point, Miller said, he has also seen no sign of a "fully-formed" Obama administration strategy to deal with either Iran or the stalled Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations. "They don't have their ducks in line," he said. For example, he said, there is no sign that the administration is promoting a quid pro quo in which the Netanyahu government endorses a two-state solution and the Arabs begin taking steps to normalize ties with Israel.
Elliot Abrams, a former deputy national security adviser in the administration of George W. Bush, wondered aloud whether President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt might agree with Netanyahu that priority be given to dealing with Iran. Egypt, Abrams said, is increasingly alarmed at the "subversive" role played by non-Arab, Shiite Muslim Iran in mainly Sunni Muslim Arab countries. He added: "I don't see a clash mostly because I don't think it's in the interests of either side to have one. Even where there are disagreements, some of these will be postponed, some of them will be covered over." (AFP)
* Palestinian Ambassador to Lebanon: Two-State Solution Will Lead to the Collapse of Israel
PLO Ambassador to Lebanon Abbas Zaki told ANB TV on May 7: "Even Ahmadinejad, leader of the rejectionists throughout the region, said he supports a two-state solution....With the two-state solution, in my opinion, Israel will collapse, because if they get out of Jerusalem, what will become of all the talk about the Promised Land and the Chosen People? What will become of all the sacrifices they made - just to be told to leave? They consider Jerusalem to have a spiritual status....If the Jews leave those places, the Zionist idea will begin to collapse. It will regress of its own accord. Then we will move forward." (MEMRI)
* U.S. Judge OKs $116M Ruling in Palestinian Terror Attack - Ray Henry
U.S. District Court Judge Ronald Lagueux on Wednesday upheld a $116 million verdict against the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority over a June 1996 terror attack in Israel that killed U.S. citizen Yaron Ungar and his wife, Efrat. (AP/Forbes)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
* Jordan King Tells Netanyahu of Concerns over Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iran - Roee Nahmias
Following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II on Thursday, officials at the prime minister's office confirmed that King Abdullah had expressed concern over the growing power of extremist groups such as Hamas and Hizbullah, as well as the Iranian nuclear threat. Jordan "doesn't want a Hamastan in the (West Bank), and a nuclear Iran is a problem for Jordan as well as Israel," one official said.
Netanyahu told Abdullah that he was "aware of the need to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and I intend to focus the talks on political, security and financial issues." (Ynet News)
* For Syria, Alliance with Iran Outweighs Rapprochement with U.S. - Jonathan Spyer
In his letter to Congress announcing the renewal of U.S. sanctions on Syria, President Obama said Syria was "supporting terrorism, pursuing weapons of mass destruction and missile programs, and undermining U.S. and international efforts with respect to the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq." Syria's activity reflects the regime's strategic choice to align itself with Iran.
With regard to supporting terrorism, the leaderships of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are domiciled in Damascus. In addition, Syria has over the last decade built a close, mutually beneficial strategic relationship with Hizbullah. On weapons of mass destruction, Syria possesses one of the largest and most advanced chemical warfare programs in the Arab world - including chemical warheads for all its major missile systems. It is known to possess a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin, and is attempting to develop the more powerful VX nerve agent, according to the CIA's bi-annual report on WMD proliferation. Damascus is also thought to possess a biological warfare development program.
Four months into Washington's courting of the Assad regime, there has been no improvement in Syria's stances regarding issues of concern to the U.S. The regime has evidently concluded that it has nothing to gain by loosening its relationship with the Iranians at the present time. The firmness of the Syrian stance suggests that Damascus expects U.S. attempts at engagement with Iran to fail. The writer is a senior researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, IDC, Herzliya. (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
Netanyahu Goes to Washington
* Netanyahu's Visit: Remember, the Real Problem Isn't Israel - Cal Thomas
Last week in London, I spoke with Liam Fox, a Conservative member of Parliament and "shadow defense secretary." Fox told me, "There is a belief in some quarters that if only you can resolve the problems between Israel and Palestine, all the other problems in the Middle East, in a domino-like fashion, will fall into place. That is absolute nonsense." Fox said that on a recent visit to Iran, Iranian politicians told him that Hizbullah and Hamas "are part of our defense policy against Israel." Fox quoted them as saying, "Hamas is not part of the Palestinian problem. Hamas is the foreign-policy wing of Iran in Israel."
The pressure from the U.S. ought not to be on Israel, which has mostly lived up to every agreement, from Oslo to Madrid to Wye River. U.S. pressure should be directed at those bent on Israel's destruction. Israel's enemies lost land through military action aimed at destroying Israel. They are winning it back through diplomacy, pressure and terrorist acts carried out by their proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah. Israel's enemies have used this newly acquired land to launch attacks.
The Palestinians will deserve a state when they and their Arab- Muslim supporters prove by their actions that they are prepared to allow Israel to exist in peace and have no intention of flooding a Palestinian state with "refugees" who might very well be used to finish the job so many of them wish Adolf Hitler had completed. The question Netanyahu should ask President Obama is whether the U.S. wants to sustain the first democracy in the Middle East or whether it wishes to create another terrorist state. (Sacramento Bee)
* Israel Sees Iran as Biggest Threat to Region - Aluf Benn
No crisis will erupt at the meeting between Netanyahu and Obama at the White House on Monday. The prime minister will explain that Iran is the biggest problem in the region, not the Palestinians, and that the moderate Arab countries share Israel's concerns. He will advise that a Palestinian state be built "from the ground up" to ensure that it doesn't threaten Israel's security. He will propose a "regional" process and hint that if the Arab initiative is amended and the right of return is removed from it, there will be something to talk about. (Ha'aretz)
* Political Disparity Unlikely to Cloud Israel-U.S. Alliance - Zhang Yanyang
Prof. Gerald Steinberg, Chair of the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University, said that perceived tensions between the Israeli prime minister and the Obama administration were blown out of proportion and were unlikely to cloud the alliance between the two countries. "I certainly would not say that the situation is in a conflict phase," Steinberg said. "Neither Obama nor Netanyahu would find any benefit in a souring in the alliance between the U.S. and Israel." "The Obama administration is sending mixed signals but it is all in line with a particular strategy. They want to bring Syria closer to the U.S. and distance Syria from Iran," he said. "But at the same time they set restrictions on a closer relationship with Syria that involves the need to address terrorism and support against nuclear proliferation," he added.
Menahem Blondheim, professor of American Studies at Hebrew University, said, "It is a little premature to say that there is going to be a showdown." "Given the very high stakes and tensions in the Middle East, especially between Egypt and the moderate Arab countries on the one side and Iran on the other, Israel is a stable entity that carries a tremendous significance." (Xinhua-China)
Other Issues
* The U.S. and the Non-Proliferation Treaty: Israel on the Line? - Emily B. Landau
When Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller noted that "universal adherence to the NPT itself - including by India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea - also remains a fundamental objective of the United States," the immediate context of the statement underscores that it does not in itself indicate a break with past positions. The timing of the speech was determined by the NPT Preparatory Committee session she attended, and within this context it is standard U.S. practice to express support for the NPT, including the hope that all states eventually join.
However, placing states on equal footing in the nuclear realm, per their NPT commitments, and downplaying the important differences among them is a theme that could have problematic implications for Israel down the road, and is in and of itself flawed. The cases of Iran and North Korea drive home that when states have a strong incentive to proliferate, even if they have joined an international treaty that prohibits this, some will nevertheless ignore commitments and work to achieve a nuclear capability. These states are noteworthy for having cheated on their past commitments; moreover, they are seeking nuclear weapons not only for their security value but to wield influence over other states, if not to directly threaten their security and existence. Indeed, the primary concern in these cases is not the weapons per se, rather the threat that these states pose to other states in their region and beyond. (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
* Why It's Dangerous to Talk to Armed Islamists - Michael Young
You know an idea is making headway when the New York Times finally picks up on it. The head of Hamas' political bureau, Khaled Meshaal, was afforded space in the paper recently. Hamas' primary goal is to become the leading interlocutor on all matters related to the Palestinians. Meshaal knows that once the West engages Hamas it will undermine the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, a key step in allowing Hamas to fulfill its dream of taking control of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians. No wonder Assad wants the U.S. to deal with Hamas. What the movement gains, Syria and Iran gain too, as both have substantial sway over Hamas decision-making.
Is that an objective Western states should help to advance? Recently the British government resumed a dialogue with Hizbullah at a moment of dangerous polarization in Lebanon before elections in June. Forget that a dialogue existed several years ago and led nowhere; this latest step implied that Hizbullah's Lebanese political adversaries, who are closer to positions the British government advocates, were losing ground. In fact, engaging Hizbullah made that outcome more likely. The foolish decision caused an angry reaction, irritating the U.S. especially, which may be why the UK has now backtracked. The writer is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. (The National-UAE)
* A Misreading of History - Benny Morris
As implied by Max Hastings in his essay in the Guardian last Saturday, in recent times the Zionists/Israelis have grown brutal. The simple truth is that since before its inception, the Arab world has laid siege to the Zionist enterprise and tried to destroy or badly weaken it, in war after war and terrorist campaign after terrorist campaign, by continuous political delegitimization, assault and boycott. Even today, after two Arab states (Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994) have formally signed peace agreements with the Jewish state, the Arab League is offering Israel a "peace" settlement that must include Israel's acceptance of a mass refugee return. Flooding Israel, with its 5.7 million Jews and 1.4 million Arabs, with the refugees would instantly turn it into just another Arab-majority state (the world already benefits from 23 such states). And that is the goal of the "moderate" PLO and Palestine Authority.
Hastings takes Israel to task for failing to negotiate peace and preferring "its military capability." What of the Begin government, which gave up the Sinai peninsula in exchange for peace with Egypt? What of the Rabin government, which gave up slices of territory for peace with Jordan? What of the Barak government, which agreed to give up the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem and 95% of the West Bank in December 2000? What of the Sharon government, which unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip? (Guardian-UK)
* Al Jazeera and Qatar: The Muslim Brothers' Dark Empire? - Zvi Mazel
In 1996, the Emir of Qatar established the Al Jazeera satellite channel which is today the most viewed station in the Arab world with an estimated audience of some 60 million. There was never any doubt about the station's political orientation. Al Jazeera launched scathing attacks on Israel during the Second Intifada and went on to incendiary broadcasts against the U.S. at the time of the Afghanistan conflict and over Iraq. During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Al Jazeera behaved as a Hizbullah spokesman. During the Gaza war, a senior Al Jazeera reporter stationed himself at Shifa Hospital, from where he broadcast a stream of carefully selected horror pictures.
Al Jazeera has become a weapon in the hands of an ambitious emir who may be driven by the Muslim Brothers and who is threatening the stability of the Middle East. With the Muslim Brothers increasingly aligned in recent years with Iran, by repeatedly attacking the Sunni Arab regimes and inciting against them, Al Jazeera is serving as an important instrument for Tehran and its effort to undermine their internal stability. The writer, who served as Israel's Ambassador to Romania, Egypt, and Sweden, currently directs the Jerusalem Center's Arabic-language website - infoelarab.org. (Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
* The Jordanian Option Is Back - Michael Bar-Zohar
The West Bank is less than half the size of Los Angeles County. The Judean Desert comprises one-third of the area. Does anybody believe that this tiny slice of territory, sandwiched between Israel and Jordan, will provide enough living space for the local 2.4 million Palestinians, for millions of Palestinian refugees, and for Palestinians from overcrowded Gaza? It appears that the supporters of the two-state solution are determined to give the Palestinians a state that would not be able to sustain itself economically.
There is a solution, but it must be a regional one that includes at least Jordan or, even better, Jordan and Egypt. It is based on the idea of a Palestinian-Jordanian federation. Jordan is a largely uninhabited country that possesses huge tracts of land where the excess population of the West Bank, Gaza and the returning refugees can establish new towns and villages and find a little breathing space. Most of Jordan's citizens are Palestinians. The writer is a former Labor Party MK and the official biographer of David Ben-Gurion and Shimon Peres. (Jerusalem Post)
* For Next Round of Mideast Peace Talks, Let the Palestinians Go First - Marvin Hier and Abraham Cooper
Like clockwork, just as a new U.S. president hit the 100-day milestone, comes another push to "jump-start" the Middle East peace process. As in past administrations, concessions from "both sides" means: Israel, you go first. But perhaps the time has come for peacemakers to try a fresh approach: Ask the Palestinians to make the first move. Israelis have been making difficult concessions at least since 1993, repeatedly trading land for promises of peace. When they turned over the major West Bank cities and Gaza to Yasser Arafat, all they got in return was broken promises.
To start the ball rolling toward real peace, Mahmoud Abbas should begin now to carry through on his repeated promises to end "anti-Israel incitement" in state-controlled Palestinian mosques and media that remain as vicious today as ever in preaching hatred of the Jewish state and Jews everywhere. Rabbis Hier and Cooper are the dean and associate dean respectively of the Simon Wiesenthal Center. (New York Daily News)
Weekend Features
* Heart of Darkness - Editorial
IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, kidnapped 1,054 days ago, remains the ill-treated, abused, tormented human pawn of an inhuman, cynical regime of genocidal terrorists and haters of Jews. "The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers has become a strategic vision for Hamas," said Abdel Latif Qanou, a Hamas spokesperson, last month. It is difficult to understand how individuals who are moved by the plight of the people of Gaza are so little-moved by the plight of young Gilad Shalit. It is also difficult to understand how and why those same individuals who inveigh in the highest pitch of vehemence and umbrage against the Jewish state will not find a single word of criticism for the Hamas rulers who have kept Shalit beyond the reach even of the Red Cross.
Some members of the U.S. Congress have recently launched an initiative that would tie the $900-million Gaza reconstruction aid to Shalit's release. Gaza is a place of darkness. Ordinary Gazans are exploited even as their pressing needs are neglected by their rulers. Only a concerted effort by fair-minded people, governments and NGOs can penetrate that darkness and bring Gilad Shalit home. (Canadian Jewish News)
* Israel's Clean Technology Pioneers - Roben Farzad
At a kibbutz in Israel's Negev Desert, entrepreneur Amit Ziv recycles runoff water from a nearby spa to raise sea bass and barramundi, a white fish in demand at high-end restaurants. He then channels the water from his desert fish farm to grow olives, which he exports to, of all places, Spain. Israel leads the world by recycling 70% of its wastewater, three times the figure for No. 2 Spain. At a time when most other investment prospects are bleak, just about every major VC firm in Silicon Valley is prospecting across Israel for cleantech investments.
In the decade before Israel won statehood, Simcha Blass was captivated by an abnormally large tree he spotted in a grove, he shoveled underneath it and discovered a cracked drainpipe feeding steady droplets directly to the tree's roots - just enough water to allow the tree to flourish. In 1965, Blass patented and sold his vision of "drip irrigation" to Kibbutz Hatzerim. Today the company has grown into Netafim, a $500 million high-tech drip-irrigation giant employing 2,600 people in 110 countries. (Business Week)
* Helping Terror Victims' Families Heal - Sara K. Eisen
Last Friday was the anniversary of the death of Koby Mandell, the 8th grader who, along with his friend, Yosef Ishran, had cut school one day in May 2001 to explore the caves near their home in Tekoa in the West Bank. They were found the next day, bludgeoned to death with large rocks.
What Sherri Mandell, Koby's mother, and her husband, Seth, have done with the tragedy is astounding. The Mandells launched and continue to run the Koby Mandell Foundation to provide support to families - especially mothers and children - who have lost loved ones to terror. The foundation runs workshops, retreats and summer camps, all subsidized, to bring some joy and empathy into the lives of people who live daily with the pain of having had a loved one disappear. Despite their grief, they seek only to help others heal. (Ynet News)
Observations:
America Must Deal First with the Threat from Iran - Efraim Halevy (Financial Times-UK)
* The Obama administration is openly telling Israel that its policies on the Palestinian dispute must be crafted in such a way as to enable Washington to build a credible and powerful anti-Iranian coalition including the moderate Arab regimes.
* While Iran's nuclear threat, coupled with its policy denying Israel's right to exist, is a predominant factor demanding an extraordinary international response, other aspects of Iran's involvement in the Israel-Palestinian conflict are assuming ever-growing importance. In addition to Iran's traditional sponsorship of the Hizbullah movement in Lebanon, for close to ten years Iran has invested heavily in Hamas, upgrading training and equipment.
* If the convoy of Iranian equipment sent via Sudan in January had not been destroyed, its arrival in Gaza would have put most of Israel within accurate missile range. All-out regional war might have been unavoidable. Iran, through Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, is constantly upping the ante.
* Iranian support has been a key factor in solidifying Hamas' political power base in the Palestinian territories. Not only is Gaza firmly in its hands, but all the combined efforts of Israel, Fatah, the U.S., Europe and the moderate Arab regimes to reduce Hamas' status in the West Bank have proven futile. Polls show Hamas would win a majority in the West Bank.
* Fatah, still struggling to try to hold its party congress, not convened for 20 years, has become a politically hollow movement. Even if the Palestinian Authority signed a peace agreement with Israel, it could not implement it in the West Bank, let alone Gaza.
* Iran has emerged as a spoiler of the "peace process." Its nuclear ambitions pose an unprecedented strategic challenge to Israel and the free world, and its activities on the ground are the biggest block to efforts to reinvigorate Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. It is essential to rid the Palestinian scene of Iran's destructive involvement. In the absence of this, efforts to aid the Palestinians in nation-building are doomed to failure.
The writer heads the Shasha Center for Strategic Studies at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a former head of the Mossad.
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In-Depth Issues:
Report: Iranian Revolutionary Guards Arrested in Egypt - Roee Nahmias (Ynet News)
Egyptian sources told the Lebanese newspaper Almustaqbal that, some five months ago, Egyptian authorities arrested four members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' al-Quds unit who set up an intelligence ring on Egyptian soil.
See also Egypt Finds 266 Rockets in Massive Arms Cache along Israel Border (Reuters/Ha'aretz)
Egyptian security forces have uncovered hundreds of weapons and explosive devices hidden along the Sinai Peninsula's border with Israel, the Arabic-language Al-Quds al-Arabiyeh reported on Friday.
Egyptian forces found 266 rockets, 40 mines, 50 mortar shells, 20 hand grenades and at least three anti-aircraft missiles.
The Mideast Nuclear Arms Scramble - Amir Taheri (New York Post)
Fears that the U.S. intends to let Iran become a nuclear power has sent other Middle Eastern countries shopping around for partners to help them join the nuclear club.
Saudi Arabia announced Sunday that it's reached an "agreement in principle" with France to develop a "nuclear industry for peaceful purposes." It becomes the third Arab country - after Egypt and Qatar - to seek French help in joining the nuclear club.
Iraq also intends to seek a return to the nuclear club. Last month, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki set up an effort to bring together Iraq's nuclear scientists and invite those in exile to return home.
Having triggered the nuclear race, Iran is also playing an active role in proliferation, with signed agreements to help Syria and Venezuela achieve "nuclear capacity."
China is negotiating with Iran to build 20 nuclear power stations over the next decade. With no international control over what happens to the spent fuel generated by those stations, Iran could end up having enough material to make hundreds of bombs.
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French Poll: 73% See Iranian Nukes as Threat - Haviv Rettig Gur (Jerusalem Post)
In a poll in France conducted in April, 35% said they viewed Israel unfavorably, while 21% viewed Israel in a positive light.
The Palestinians enjoy nearly twice as much support (27%) as the Israelis (14%), though even more (32%) said they did not support either side.
Yet more blamed Hamas for Gaza's humanitarian situation (36%) than Israel (26%).
83% feel that a two-state solution is the "only realistic solution" to the conflict, but an identical 83% said it was "not realistic right now."
73% believed an Iranian nuclear weapon would be a threat to France, up from 64% in December 2007.
"Lawfare" Against Israel Complicates the Search for Peace - Josh Goodman (Wall Street Journal Europe)
Last week a Spanish judge decided to pursue an investigation in a case brought by a group of Palestinians accusing Israel of "crimes against humanity" for a 2002 strike against the military leader of Hamas in Gaza.
That strike took place during a year in which waves of suicide bombings rocked Israel's cities. As a result of the war in Gaza last January, Israel expects to face a slew of similar probes and lawsuits in foreign courts.
The misuse of legal concepts in public discourse is often designed to give one-sided criticism of Israel the appearance of a judicious assessment of international law.
Political philosopher Michael Walzer correctly points out that the term "disproportionate violence" as used by many commentators today "is simply violence they don't like, or it is violence committed by people they don't like."
Hamas' Mistake - Guy Bechor (Ynet News)
Hamas leaders believed their own rhetoric and that of Hizbullah. They truly believed that Israel will bow down before them, that it would be scared to enter Gaza, and that it would certainly refrain from going in deep.
Their arrogant and belligerent displays have disappeared. Hamas now understands: It is merely a small organization that jailed itself and its society in a bottle.
In contradiction to its own lies, Hamas sustained a decisive military blow and has trouble recovering from it.
The smuggling tunnel network it built is indeed helping it to get stronger, yet improved Egyptian efforts are making this more difficult.
The Fatal Glitch with "Land for Peace" - George Jonas (National Post-Canada)
The peace plan outlined by Jordan's King Abdullah would entail the gradual recognition of Israel by 57 Arab and/or Muslim countries in return for Israel's gradual withdrawal to its pre-1967 borders. It sounds reasonable, except for three things.
One, 57 Arab/Muslim countries are 56 too many. They aren't likely to agree with each other on the time of day, let alone the recognition of Israel. Is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad going to recognize Israel? And if only one nuclear ayatollah doesn't, what does it matter who does?
Two, the peace-for-land concept has been a historic failure, not because Israel wouldn't dole out land for peace - it has, to all comers, sometimes unasked - but because the Arab/Muslim side won't dole out peace for land.
Three, the Middle East conflict has zip all to do with Israel's 1967 borders. It has to do with Israel's 1948 borders. Had Israel's Arab/Muslim neighbors accepted Israel's 1948 borders, there would be no 1967 borders to dispute today.
The irony of King Abdullah lecturing Israel on a two-state solution isn't lost on anyone who remembers that the Hashemite Kingdom occupies about 80% of the former Palestinian Mandate.
There Are 70 Conflicts Worldwide, So Why Do We Focus on Just One? - Stephen King (Irish Examiner)
The media has a fixation on Israel (and its supposed crimes) which is, for want of a better word, disproportionate. The fact that Israel is the world's one and only Jewish state - amidst a vast ocean of Muslim states - inevitably makes many Jewish people think it's them, and not Israel as such, which is in the media's sights.
The International Crisis Group is currently tracking 70 conflicts around the world, from Afghanistan and Algeria to Yemen and Zimbabwe. So why the obsession with Israel? It's the only country in the world whose existence is queried.
Could it be some wrongheaded notion of guilt for having set up Israel after the Holocaust, when actually Israel fought British imperialism for its independence? Could it be, as many Israelis believe, that we see Israelis as Jews in the latest manifestation of centuries-old anti-Semitism?
Monitoring Anti-Semitism in Europe - Michael Whine (Jewish Political Studies Review)
Governments and the relevant intergovernmental agencies now accept that anti-Semitism and violence against Jewish communities has increased.
The murder of Ilan Halimi in February 2006 in Paris, the torching of synagogues in France and the UK, the continuous cemetery and synagogue desecrations, and the rash of anti-Jewish graffiti throughout Europe, North America, and the former Soviet Union have finally roused governments and agencies to take action.
Awareness of the increase in racist and anti-Semitic violence has led the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Union (EU) to adopt moves to monitor and combat the phenomenon.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
* U.S. Envoy Says Iran Top Issue in Mideast - Nicholas Kralev
Iran's nuclear program and its increased regional influence have replaced the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the main concern of governments in the Middle East, the Obama administration's chief envoy for the region said Thursday. Jeffrey D. Feltman, Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his confirmation hearing that the fears about Iran have become "the key development in the region." "When you traveled around the [Middle East] five, six, seven years ago, almost everywhere you went, the first thing that came up was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict," Feltman said. "When you travel around today, what you are going to hear about is Iran." He reiterated the administration's goal of preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
Feltman called Iran a "spoiler" in the pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace through its support for Hamas, which controls Gaza, and Lebanon's Hizbullah. Nevertheless, he said, "we want to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order to remove one of the tools that Iran uses to distract the region from what Iran is doing." (Washington Times)
See also below Observations: America Must Deal First with the Threat from Iran - Efraim Halevy (Financial Times-UK)
* Israel: Netanyahu's Message in Tune with Obama's - Tobias Buck
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's officials confidently dismiss talk of an impending clash at his keenly awaited first meeting with President Barack Obama. Insisting there is no substantial disagreement between the two men, they suggest Monday's encounter should be a smooth and amicable affair. Netanyahu's message, they say, will be entirely in tune with that of Obama - from the need to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions to Israel's willingness to engage in peace talks with the Palestinians. With regard to the political process, Netanyahu will raise his idea of a "triple-track" approach aimed at achieving parallel progress with the Palestinians on the economic, security and political fronts. (Financial Times-UK)
See also No Crisis Expected in Obama-Netanyahu Talks
Aaron David Miller, a public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, told AFP: "There is no reason, need...for a fight." Neither side wants a breakdown in trust that would flow from a major crisis. At this point, Miller said, he has also seen no sign of a "fully-formed" Obama administration strategy to deal with either Iran or the stalled Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations. "They don't have their ducks in line," he said. For example, he said, there is no sign that the administration is promoting a quid pro quo in which the Netanyahu government endorses a two-state solution and the Arabs begin taking steps to normalize ties with Israel.
Elliot Abrams, a former deputy national security adviser in the administration of George W. Bush, wondered aloud whether President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt might agree with Netanyahu that priority be given to dealing with Iran. Egypt, Abrams said, is increasingly alarmed at the "subversive" role played by non-Arab, Shiite Muslim Iran in mainly Sunni Muslim Arab countries. He added: "I don't see a clash mostly because I don't think it's in the interests of either side to have one. Even where there are disagreements, some of these will be postponed, some of them will be covered over." (AFP)
* Palestinian Ambassador to Lebanon: Two-State Solution Will Lead to the Collapse of Israel
PLO Ambassador to Lebanon Abbas Zaki told ANB TV on May 7: "Even Ahmadinejad, leader of the rejectionists throughout the region, said he supports a two-state solution....With the two-state solution, in my opinion, Israel will collapse, because if they get out of Jerusalem, what will become of all the talk about the Promised Land and the Chosen People? What will become of all the sacrifices they made - just to be told to leave? They consider Jerusalem to have a spiritual status....If the Jews leave those places, the Zionist idea will begin to collapse. It will regress of its own accord. Then we will move forward." (MEMRI)
* U.S. Judge OKs $116M Ruling in Palestinian Terror Attack - Ray Henry
U.S. District Court Judge Ronald Lagueux on Wednesday upheld a $116 million verdict against the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority over a June 1996 terror attack in Israel that killed U.S. citizen Yaron Ungar and his wife, Efrat. (AP/Forbes)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
* Jordan King Tells Netanyahu of Concerns over Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iran - Roee Nahmias
Following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II on Thursday, officials at the prime minister's office confirmed that King Abdullah had expressed concern over the growing power of extremist groups such as Hamas and Hizbullah, as well as the Iranian nuclear threat. Jordan "doesn't want a Hamastan in the (West Bank), and a nuclear Iran is a problem for Jordan as well as Israel," one official said.
Netanyahu told Abdullah that he was "aware of the need to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and I intend to focus the talks on political, security and financial issues." (Ynet News)
* For Syria, Alliance with Iran Outweighs Rapprochement with U.S. - Jonathan Spyer
In his letter to Congress announcing the renewal of U.S. sanctions on Syria, President Obama said Syria was "supporting terrorism, pursuing weapons of mass destruction and missile programs, and undermining U.S. and international efforts with respect to the stabilization and reconstruction of Iraq." Syria's activity reflects the regime's strategic choice to align itself with Iran.
With regard to supporting terrorism, the leaderships of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are domiciled in Damascus. In addition, Syria has over the last decade built a close, mutually beneficial strategic relationship with Hizbullah. On weapons of mass destruction, Syria possesses one of the largest and most advanced chemical warfare programs in the Arab world - including chemical warheads for all its major missile systems. It is known to possess a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin, and is attempting to develop the more powerful VX nerve agent, according to the CIA's bi-annual report on WMD proliferation. Damascus is also thought to possess a biological warfare development program.
Four months into Washington's courting of the Assad regime, there has been no improvement in Syria's stances regarding issues of concern to the U.S. The regime has evidently concluded that it has nothing to gain by loosening its relationship with the Iranians at the present time. The firmness of the Syrian stance suggests that Damascus expects U.S. attempts at engagement with Iran to fail. The writer is a senior researcher at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, IDC, Herzliya. (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
Netanyahu Goes to Washington
* Netanyahu's Visit: Remember, the Real Problem Isn't Israel - Cal Thomas
Last week in London, I spoke with Liam Fox, a Conservative member of Parliament and "shadow defense secretary." Fox told me, "There is a belief in some quarters that if only you can resolve the problems between Israel and Palestine, all the other problems in the Middle East, in a domino-like fashion, will fall into place. That is absolute nonsense." Fox said that on a recent visit to Iran, Iranian politicians told him that Hizbullah and Hamas "are part of our defense policy against Israel." Fox quoted them as saying, "Hamas is not part of the Palestinian problem. Hamas is the foreign-policy wing of Iran in Israel."
The pressure from the U.S. ought not to be on Israel, which has mostly lived up to every agreement, from Oslo to Madrid to Wye River. U.S. pressure should be directed at those bent on Israel's destruction. Israel's enemies lost land through military action aimed at destroying Israel. They are winning it back through diplomacy, pressure and terrorist acts carried out by their proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah. Israel's enemies have used this newly acquired land to launch attacks.
The Palestinians will deserve a state when they and their Arab- Muslim supporters prove by their actions that they are prepared to allow Israel to exist in peace and have no intention of flooding a Palestinian state with "refugees" who might very well be used to finish the job so many of them wish Adolf Hitler had completed. The question Netanyahu should ask President Obama is whether the U.S. wants to sustain the first democracy in the Middle East or whether it wishes to create another terrorist state. (Sacramento Bee)
* Israel Sees Iran as Biggest Threat to Region - Aluf Benn
No crisis will erupt at the meeting between Netanyahu and Obama at the White House on Monday. The prime minister will explain that Iran is the biggest problem in the region, not the Palestinians, and that the moderate Arab countries share Israel's concerns. He will advise that a Palestinian state be built "from the ground up" to ensure that it doesn't threaten Israel's security. He will propose a "regional" process and hint that if the Arab initiative is amended and the right of return is removed from it, there will be something to talk about. (Ha'aretz)
* Political Disparity Unlikely to Cloud Israel-U.S. Alliance - Zhang Yanyang
Prof. Gerald Steinberg, Chair of the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University, said that perceived tensions between the Israeli prime minister and the Obama administration were blown out of proportion and were unlikely to cloud the alliance between the two countries. "I certainly would not say that the situation is in a conflict phase," Steinberg said. "Neither Obama nor Netanyahu would find any benefit in a souring in the alliance between the U.S. and Israel." "The Obama administration is sending mixed signals but it is all in line with a particular strategy. They want to bring Syria closer to the U.S. and distance Syria from Iran," he said. "But at the same time they set restrictions on a closer relationship with Syria that involves the need to address terrorism and support against nuclear proliferation," he added.
Menahem Blondheim, professor of American Studies at Hebrew University, said, "It is a little premature to say that there is going to be a showdown." "Given the very high stakes and tensions in the Middle East, especially between Egypt and the moderate Arab countries on the one side and Iran on the other, Israel is a stable entity that carries a tremendous significance." (Xinhua-China)
Other Issues
* The U.S. and the Non-Proliferation Treaty: Israel on the Line? - Emily B. Landau
When Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller noted that "universal adherence to the NPT itself - including by India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea - also remains a fundamental objective of the United States," the immediate context of the statement underscores that it does not in itself indicate a break with past positions. The timing of the speech was determined by the NPT Preparatory Committee session she attended, and within this context it is standard U.S. practice to express support for the NPT, including the hope that all states eventually join.
However, placing states on equal footing in the nuclear realm, per their NPT commitments, and downplaying the important differences among them is a theme that could have problematic implications for Israel down the road, and is in and of itself flawed. The cases of Iran and North Korea drive home that when states have a strong incentive to proliferate, even if they have joined an international treaty that prohibits this, some will nevertheless ignore commitments and work to achieve a nuclear capability. These states are noteworthy for having cheated on their past commitments; moreover, they are seeking nuclear weapons not only for their security value but to wield influence over other states, if not to directly threaten their security and existence. Indeed, the primary concern in these cases is not the weapons per se, rather the threat that these states pose to other states in their region and beyond. (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
* Why It's Dangerous to Talk to Armed Islamists - Michael Young
You know an idea is making headway when the New York Times finally picks up on it. The head of Hamas' political bureau, Khaled Meshaal, was afforded space in the paper recently. Hamas' primary goal is to become the leading interlocutor on all matters related to the Palestinians. Meshaal knows that once the West engages Hamas it will undermine the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, a key step in allowing Hamas to fulfill its dream of taking control of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians. No wonder Assad wants the U.S. to deal with Hamas. What the movement gains, Syria and Iran gain too, as both have substantial sway over Hamas decision-making.
Is that an objective Western states should help to advance? Recently the British government resumed a dialogue with Hizbullah at a moment of dangerous polarization in Lebanon before elections in June. Forget that a dialogue existed several years ago and led nowhere; this latest step implied that Hizbullah's Lebanese political adversaries, who are closer to positions the British government advocates, were losing ground. In fact, engaging Hizbullah made that outcome more likely. The foolish decision caused an angry reaction, irritating the U.S. especially, which may be why the UK has now backtracked. The writer is opinion editor of the Daily Star newspaper in Lebanon. (The National-UAE)
* A Misreading of History - Benny Morris
As implied by Max Hastings in his essay in the Guardian last Saturday, in recent times the Zionists/Israelis have grown brutal. The simple truth is that since before its inception, the Arab world has laid siege to the Zionist enterprise and tried to destroy or badly weaken it, in war after war and terrorist campaign after terrorist campaign, by continuous political delegitimization, assault and boycott. Even today, after two Arab states (Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994) have formally signed peace agreements with the Jewish state, the Arab League is offering Israel a "peace" settlement that must include Israel's acceptance of a mass refugee return. Flooding Israel, with its 5.7 million Jews and 1.4 million Arabs, with the refugees would instantly turn it into just another Arab-majority state (the world already benefits from 23 such states). And that is the goal of the "moderate" PLO and Palestine Authority.
Hastings takes Israel to task for failing to negotiate peace and preferring "its military capability." What of the Begin government, which gave up the Sinai peninsula in exchange for peace with Egypt? What of the Rabin government, which gave up slices of territory for peace with Jordan? What of the Barak government, which agreed to give up the Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem and 95% of the West Bank in December 2000? What of the Sharon government, which unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip? (Guardian-UK)
* Al Jazeera and Qatar: The Muslim Brothers' Dark Empire? - Zvi Mazel
In 1996, the Emir of Qatar established the Al Jazeera satellite channel which is today the most viewed station in the Arab world with an estimated audience of some 60 million. There was never any doubt about the station's political orientation. Al Jazeera launched scathing attacks on Israel during the Second Intifada and went on to incendiary broadcasts against the U.S. at the time of the Afghanistan conflict and over Iraq. During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Al Jazeera behaved as a Hizbullah spokesman. During the Gaza war, a senior Al Jazeera reporter stationed himself at Shifa Hospital, from where he broadcast a stream of carefully selected horror pictures.
Al Jazeera has become a weapon in the hands of an ambitious emir who may be driven by the Muslim Brothers and who is threatening the stability of the Middle East. With the Muslim Brothers increasingly aligned in recent years with Iran, by repeatedly attacking the Sunni Arab regimes and inciting against them, Al Jazeera is serving as an important instrument for Tehran and its effort to undermine their internal stability. The writer, who served as Israel's Ambassador to Romania, Egypt, and Sweden, currently directs the Jerusalem Center's Arabic-language website - infoelarab.org. (Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
* The Jordanian Option Is Back - Michael Bar-Zohar
The West Bank is less than half the size of Los Angeles County. The Judean Desert comprises one-third of the area. Does anybody believe that this tiny slice of territory, sandwiched between Israel and Jordan, will provide enough living space for the local 2.4 million Palestinians, for millions of Palestinian refugees, and for Palestinians from overcrowded Gaza? It appears that the supporters of the two-state solution are determined to give the Palestinians a state that would not be able to sustain itself economically.
There is a solution, but it must be a regional one that includes at least Jordan or, even better, Jordan and Egypt. It is based on the idea of a Palestinian-Jordanian federation. Jordan is a largely uninhabited country that possesses huge tracts of land where the excess population of the West Bank, Gaza and the returning refugees can establish new towns and villages and find a little breathing space. Most of Jordan's citizens are Palestinians. The writer is a former Labor Party MK and the official biographer of David Ben-Gurion and Shimon Peres. (Jerusalem Post)
* For Next Round of Mideast Peace Talks, Let the Palestinians Go First - Marvin Hier and Abraham Cooper
Like clockwork, just as a new U.S. president hit the 100-day milestone, comes another push to "jump-start" the Middle East peace process. As in past administrations, concessions from "both sides" means: Israel, you go first. But perhaps the time has come for peacemakers to try a fresh approach: Ask the Palestinians to make the first move. Israelis have been making difficult concessions at least since 1993, repeatedly trading land for promises of peace. When they turned over the major West Bank cities and Gaza to Yasser Arafat, all they got in return was broken promises.
To start the ball rolling toward real peace, Mahmoud Abbas should begin now to carry through on his repeated promises to end "anti-Israel incitement" in state-controlled Palestinian mosques and media that remain as vicious today as ever in preaching hatred of the Jewish state and Jews everywhere. Rabbis Hier and Cooper are the dean and associate dean respectively of the Simon Wiesenthal Center. (New York Daily News)
Weekend Features
* Heart of Darkness - Editorial
IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, kidnapped 1,054 days ago, remains the ill-treated, abused, tormented human pawn of an inhuman, cynical regime of genocidal terrorists and haters of Jews. "The kidnapping of Israeli soldiers has become a strategic vision for Hamas," said Abdel Latif Qanou, a Hamas spokesperson, last month. It is difficult to understand how individuals who are moved by the plight of the people of Gaza are so little-moved by the plight of young Gilad Shalit. It is also difficult to understand how and why those same individuals who inveigh in the highest pitch of vehemence and umbrage against the Jewish state will not find a single word of criticism for the Hamas rulers who have kept Shalit beyond the reach even of the Red Cross.
Some members of the U.S. Congress have recently launched an initiative that would tie the $900-million Gaza reconstruction aid to Shalit's release. Gaza is a place of darkness. Ordinary Gazans are exploited even as their pressing needs are neglected by their rulers. Only a concerted effort by fair-minded people, governments and NGOs can penetrate that darkness and bring Gilad Shalit home. (Canadian Jewish News)
* Israel's Clean Technology Pioneers - Roben Farzad
At a kibbutz in Israel's Negev Desert, entrepreneur Amit Ziv recycles runoff water from a nearby spa to raise sea bass and barramundi, a white fish in demand at high-end restaurants. He then channels the water from his desert fish farm to grow olives, which he exports to, of all places, Spain. Israel leads the world by recycling 70% of its wastewater, three times the figure for No. 2 Spain. At a time when most other investment prospects are bleak, just about every major VC firm in Silicon Valley is prospecting across Israel for cleantech investments.
In the decade before Israel won statehood, Simcha Blass was captivated by an abnormally large tree he spotted in a grove, he shoveled underneath it and discovered a cracked drainpipe feeding steady droplets directly to the tree's roots - just enough water to allow the tree to flourish. In 1965, Blass patented and sold his vision of "drip irrigation" to Kibbutz Hatzerim. Today the company has grown into Netafim, a $500 million high-tech drip-irrigation giant employing 2,600 people in 110 countries. (Business Week)
* Helping Terror Victims' Families Heal - Sara K. Eisen
Last Friday was the anniversary of the death of Koby Mandell, the 8th grader who, along with his friend, Yosef Ishran, had cut school one day in May 2001 to explore the caves near their home in Tekoa in the West Bank. They were found the next day, bludgeoned to death with large rocks.
What Sherri Mandell, Koby's mother, and her husband, Seth, have done with the tragedy is astounding. The Mandells launched and continue to run the Koby Mandell Foundation to provide support to families - especially mothers and children - who have lost loved ones to terror. The foundation runs workshops, retreats and summer camps, all subsidized, to bring some joy and empathy into the lives of people who live daily with the pain of having had a loved one disappear. Despite their grief, they seek only to help others heal. (Ynet News)
Observations:
America Must Deal First with the Threat from Iran - Efraim Halevy (Financial Times-UK)
* The Obama administration is openly telling Israel that its policies on the Palestinian dispute must be crafted in such a way as to enable Washington to build a credible and powerful anti-Iranian coalition including the moderate Arab regimes.
* While Iran's nuclear threat, coupled with its policy denying Israel's right to exist, is a predominant factor demanding an extraordinary international response, other aspects of Iran's involvement in the Israel-Palestinian conflict are assuming ever-growing importance. In addition to Iran's traditional sponsorship of the Hizbullah movement in Lebanon, for close to ten years Iran has invested heavily in Hamas, upgrading training and equipment.
* If the convoy of Iranian equipment sent via Sudan in January had not been destroyed, its arrival in Gaza would have put most of Israel within accurate missile range. All-out regional war might have been unavoidable. Iran, through Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, is constantly upping the ante.
* Iranian support has been a key factor in solidifying Hamas' political power base in the Palestinian territories. Not only is Gaza firmly in its hands, but all the combined efforts of Israel, Fatah, the U.S., Europe and the moderate Arab regimes to reduce Hamas' status in the West Bank have proven futile. Polls show Hamas would win a majority in the West Bank.
* Fatah, still struggling to try to hold its party congress, not convened for 20 years, has become a politically hollow movement. Even if the Palestinian Authority signed a peace agreement with Israel, it could not implement it in the West Bank, let alone Gaza.
* Iran has emerged as a spoiler of the "peace process." Its nuclear ambitions pose an unprecedented strategic challenge to Israel and the free world, and its activities on the ground are the biggest block to efforts to reinvigorate Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. It is essential to rid the Palestinian scene of Iran's destructive involvement. In the absence of this, efforts to aid the Palestinians in nation-building are doomed to failure.
The writer heads the Shasha Center for Strategic Studies at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a former head of the Mossad.
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