Iran and war

Israeli website DEBKAfile, claiming that an Israeli official had said that should the current nuclear talks with Iran fail, that US President George W. Bush is prepared to give his okay for a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and other targets after the November 2008 US elections (November 2008-January 2009 timeframe).



It is also asserted that the recent meeting Saturday by the #3 official at the US State Department, William Burns, with Iranian negotiator Saeed Jalili was not so much a strategic shift in US policy as basically an ultimatum or last ditch effort at diplomacy. Thus, if the Iranians fail in 2 weeks to accept the incentive package offered by the US and its allies and if Tehran fails to halt its nuclear enrichment, the US is likely to immediately push for even tougher sanctions on Iran and then if all else fails, approve an attack on Iran at the end of this year. It's not clear if Bush giving the OK for an attack on Iran means giving Israel the "green light" or that the US will attack Iran with or without Israeli assistance. Many analysts (myself included) believe that if Israel attacks Iran, Tehran will strike back at US interests and if the US attacks Iran on its own, Tehran will order attacks on Israeli interests, thus, should an attack on Iran occur, it may very well be a joint US-Israeli strike to increase the odds of "success."



Should President George W. Bush authorize a US attack on Iran during his last 90 days in office, it will not be without precedent, as his father, President George H.W. Bush, also ordered US troops to Somalia after losing the November 1992 election, leaving President Clinton to deal with the mess (i.e., "Black Hawk Down," etc.). Thus, President Bush #41 and #43 will have taken the US to war with Iraq, precided over a recession (or at least an economic slowdown) at the end of their terms, and sent American military forces into combat in the last 90 days of office, leaving the incoming US president to deal with the consequences. This scenario may not happen, but it is a real possibility.