Missile defense Jer. Report Nov. 17

The Arrow and the Phalanx reflect the changing nature of the military threat to Israel.
Rather than planes, tanks or suicide bombers, today an estimated 50,000 missiles of all sizes and trajectories in potential enemy arsenals could target the country. Indeed, for the Iranians, the Syrians, Hizballah and Hamas, the missile or rocket has long since become the weapon of choice. The result has been an evolution in Israeli military doctrine, ushering in "active missile defense" (AMD) systems, designed to shoot down incoming shells, rockets and missiles, as an integral part of military planning.

Barak advocates what he calls a "multi-
layered" missile defense, with a combination of complementary systems affording protection against attacks from just a few kilometers to over 1,000 miles. Ideally, the Phalanx would cover threats up to around 12 kilometers; the Iron Dome, being developed by Israel Defense Industries' Rafael and scheduled for operational deployment early next year, would deal with Qassams and Katyushas fired from between 4 and 40 kilometers; the American-made Patriot Advanced Capabilities or PAC-2 already in operation, and David's Sling (a.k.a. Magic Wand), being developed jointly by Rafael and Raytheon and scheduled for deployment in 2012-13, would meet medium-range threats like the Iranian-made Fadjr 3 and 5, Zelzal 2 or the Syrian Scud-C from 40 to several hundred kilometers; and the Arrow, which could also provide cover against the Zelzal or the Scuds, would take it from there for longer-distance missiles, like the Shihab.

Barak sees the creation of an anti-projectile shield around Israel as a "strategic goal." Not only would it protect civilians and strategic installations, but the knowledge that their missiles might be intercepted could deter potential aggressors from using them.

An effective missile shield could also give Israeli policy-makers added options: For example, they might feel more confident about withdrawing from the West Bank if they believed strategic installations like Ben-Gurion Airport were adequately protected against rocket attack.

Indeed, Barak has said if peace talks with the Palestinians bog down, he would advocate unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, once a reliable system for intercepting short-range rockets is in place.