Arabs want Israel to attack

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/israel_the_arabs_hope_QiLkPGkB9msRVqWHjHhoSO



Israel: the Arabs' hope

By BENNY AVNI

Last Updated: 2:55 AM, September 24, 2009

Posted: 12:58 AM, September 24, 2009

President Obama tough ened his tone toward Iran a bit yesterday -- but the Is lamic Republic's fearful neighbors are looking elsewhere, to Israel of all places, for real toughness.

In his UN speech, Obama strayed a bit from his campaign talk of using personal charm to stop Iran's nuclear quest. Yes, he stuck to a promise of "diplomacy that opens a path to greater prosperity and more secure peace" on Iran. But he also hinted, a bit more darkly, that the international treaties that Iran and North Korea have violated "will be enforced."

Yet the small Gulf states are anxious. They don't believe that a shift in the president's rhetoric can stop Tehran -- and they don't see any sign of US action that will. These Arabs are reluctantly concluding that if anyone is going to help them, it's Israel.

Think of it: Does an Obama threat of "enforcement" instill fear in the hearts of the regional despots the way his predecessor's vow to enforce UN resolutions did? Without President George W. Bush's overthrow of Saddam, Moammar Khadafy would never have opted to become a UN "hero," as he did yesterday: Fear that the crazed cowboy might get him next was plainly part of his reason for dismantling Libya's nuclear-weapons program.

If Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (or the country's supreme leader, Ali Khameini) ever had similar fears, they're long gone. Iran's learned it can negotiate the West to death.

Last night, Ahmadinejad answered Obama with sheer audacity -- claiming, despite the disputed election still protested inside the country, that the Iranian people have "entrusted me once more with a large majority." He then offered anew to "engage" (Obama's favorite buzzword):

"The Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the most democratic and progressive governments in the world, is ready to mobilize all its cultural, political and economic capabilities to engage into constructive process aimed at addressing the international concerns and challenges,"Ahmadinejad told an almost empty General Assembly hall. (US and European delegates walked out earlier, as the Persian Pariah begun to spew one of his anti-Semitic diatribes.)

Others joined Obama in talking tougher. Iran's leaders are "making a tragic mistake in relying on the passive response of the international community," French President Nicolas Sarkozy said yesterday.

But French signals are mixed: Earlier this week, Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner expressed "doubts" about the wisdom of hitting Iran with the sharpest arrow in the Security Council's quiver, gasoline sanctions.

And France is the tough one in the group set to negotiate with Iran next month. (The foreign ministers of France, Russia, China, Britain, the US and Germany met yesterday and announced they'd start a "dual track" on Iran, devising a strategy in case Obama's negotiations with the mullahs fail).

All of which leaves the people who live closest to Iran feeling less than impressed. These Arabs yearn for a more active approach. "If Obama remains wishy-washy" on Iran's nukes, "we're going to be left to our own devices," the president of Kuwait's Center for Strategic Studies, Sami al-Faraj, told me this week.

The small countries near Iran -- including the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and his own Kuwait -- are looking for ways to hedge their bets, al-Faraj said. US promises of a security umbrella seem no more trustworthy than its promises to stop Iran's nuclear projects.

So these nations have increased their intelligence cooperation with Israel and other regional allies. They also increasingly see military force as the only way to stop the mullahs. And any attack, al-Faraj said, is best coming from Israel.

Kuwait has hosted US troops since the first Gulf War in 1991. Most of the troops we withdraw from Iraq but leave in the region will will end up there. If America attacks Iran's nuclear installations, al-Faraj said, his country would take the brunt of the Iranian retaliation. But if Israel attacks, Iranian missiles aimed at the Jewish state will "fly over our heads."

The region's Arabs are (too) secretly rooting for an Israeli attack to end their nuclear-Iran nightmares. By contrast, some Americans, like Zbigniew Brzezinski, advise Obama to tell the Israelis that, if they launch an attack on Iran, he'll order US planes to shoot their jets down.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that, in every conversation on the topic, Obama told him that all his diplomacy is aimed at preventing Iran from achieving nuclear-weapons capability. But, despite the Brzezinskis of the world, no Israeli official has ever taken any "option" off the table. ironically, Arab hopes are increasingly vested in the "Israeli option."



http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27524.html