strike on iran?

Q+A-Could Israel strike Iran over nuclear concerns?

Sept 21 (Reuters) - Israel has not given up the option of a military response to Tehran's nuclear programme, Israel's deputy foreign minister said on Monday, after Russia had said Israel's president gave an assurance Israel would not attack [nLL693597].

Many analysts believe the risks of a strike by Israel, even one not endorsed by its ally the United States, are significant.

Here's where matters stand:



COULD ISRAEL LAUNCH A STRIKE AGAINST IRAN?

It's a poker game with high stakes and a degree of bluff. Israeli leaders refuse to rule out any option [ID:nLD462373]. They do not believe Iran's assurances it wants only nuclear energy. Noting President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's repeated assertions that Israel has no future [ID:nLI166069], Israel has said an Iranian bomb would be a threat to its very existence that it simply would not tolerate.

Last year, however, it emerged officials were making plans for how Israel might live with a nuclear Iran in a state of mutual deterrence. And a June poll [ID:nLE668763] showed Israelis would not expect a nuclear Iran to attack. Last week, Defence Minister Ehud Barak said even a nuclear Iran could not destroy Israel, stating: "Israel can lay waste to Iran." [ID:nLH395080]

Since becoming prime minister in March, Benjamin Netanyahu has, aides say, made ending threats from Iran a defining element of what he sees as his personal role in Jewish history. A 1981 Israeli air strike that destroyed Iraq's only nuclear reactor, as well as a strike in Syria in 2007 that is cloaked in mystery, set precedents. Despite a policy of silence, few doubt Israel has nuclear weapons and missiles that can hit Iran.


WHAT MIGHT HOLD ISRAEL BACK?

It is not clear how Israel would define achieving its goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But a pledge from Iran to forswear such arms, backed by some form of supervision and intelligence data, might be a minimum. Much will depend on Iran's actions and on U.S. President Barack Obama and others, who are pressing Iran through sanctions and diplomacy.

While many analysts doubt Iran's denials of military intent, some say Iran may be content with showing it has the potential to go nuclear quickly, without actually arming itself. Israel, however, might not accept that level of potential threat.

In the meantime, were Israel to consider a unilateral strike on it Iran it would have to weigh several major risks:

-- of retaliation, not just from Iran but its allied guerrilla groups, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas

-- of economic and diplomatic backlash from U.S. and allies

-- of a failed attack still triggering the above reactions



WHAT ARE THE KEY ELEMENTS IN TIMETABLE?

First, Iran's technology: Israel's national security adviser said in July it had passed a "red line" in terms of being able to make its own nuclear explosive but could not make significant amounts nor yet put viable nuclear warheads on its missiles.

Mossad chief Meir Dagan, seen as a key figure in Israel's Iran policy who has just had his mandate unusually extended to 2010, said in June Iran could have a viable warhead in 2014.

Second, diplomacy: Iran is to meet on Oct. 1 with six major powers concerned about its nuclear plans. In May, Obama told Netanyahu that "by the end of the year" he expected to judge whether diplomacy was succeeding. Last week, a former senior official said that if the West did not agree crippling sanctions by the end of the year, Israel would have to strike [ID:nLG58054].

Russia, a veto-holding member of the Security Council and potential arms supplier to Iran, has a major role [ID:nLK555856].



WOULD ISRAEL GO IT ALONE, WITHOUT U.S. BACKING?

Obama, at odds with Netanyahu over Jewish settlement in the West Bank and peace moves with the Palestinians [ID:nLK558138], said in July he had "absolutely not" given Israel a green light to attack. He was responding to his vice-president saying that Israel had a right to act if it felt "existentially threatened". Israel would be reluctant to anger its key ally. It would not wish Washington to be surprised, might even want U.S. help. But many analysts believe Israel might yet go it alone [nL3237769].

Some question whether Israel's U.S.-armed military has the range and firepower to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities without U.S. help. Analysts say Israel might be content with slowing any nuclear arms programme, hoping for political change to end it.

Talk of an Israeli unilateral strike may also be part of a tactic of deterrence, or a bid to ensure U.S. cooperation.



HOW MIGHT ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN?

Overt or covert? Israel has been developing "cyber-war" capabilities that could disrupt Iranian industrial and military control systems. Few doubt that covert action, by Mossad agents on the ground, also features in tactics against Iran [ID:nLV83872]. An advantage of sabotage over an air strike may be deniability.

Militarily Israel can also deploy the following forces:

AIR -- 500 combat aircraft, including F-15s and F-16s able to bomb Iran's west, and further with aerial refuelling, a technique for which the air force has been training. Planes can overfly hostile Arab states using stealth technology. Armed with "bunker buster" bombs that can be released with accuracy outside Iran's airspace. Israel is also assumed to have dozens of Jericho missiles designed to carry conventional or nuclear warheads to the Gulf. An Israeli nuclear strike is unlikely.

LAND -- Special forces could be deployed on the ground, to spot targets, and also possibly destroy them with sabotage.

SEA -- Israel sailed one of its three German-made Dolphin submarines into the Red Sea through Suez in June, opening a way to the Gulf. The submarines are believed to be capable of firing nuclear and conventional cruise missiles.

MISSILE DEFENCE - Israel is upgrading its Arrow missile interceptor, which is underwritten by Washington, and can also expect to avail itself of American Aegis anti-missile ships deployed in the Mediterranean. X-band, a U.S. strategic radar stationed in Israel, further cements the alliance [ID:nLH667845]. (Writing by Alastair Macdonald) (For blogs and links on Israeli politics and other Israeli and Palestinian news, go to blogs.reuters.com/axismundi)



SOURCE: BBC, Monday, 21 September 2009 15:03 UK

Israel's 'options open' on Iran

Isfahan nuclear plant, file pic
Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes

Israel has not ruled out any options in dealing with Iran's nuclear programme, a senior Israeli official has said.


Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said there was no guarantee Israel would not launch a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

The comments come after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Israel had assured him it had no such plans.

Tehran says its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes and denies it is seeking to build nuclear weapons.

In an interview with US network CNN, Mr Medvedev said Israeli President Shimon Peres had told him in person Israel was not planning any strikes on Iran.

According to a transcript of an interview released by the Kremlin on Sunday, the Russian president said such a strike would cause a "humanitarian disaster" and be "the worst thing that can be imagined".

But Mr Ayalon said that remark was "certainly not a guarantee" that there would be no military action.

"I don't think that, with all due respect, the Russian president is authorised to speak for Israel and certainly we have not taken any option off the table," he said.

Israel's leaders have consistently said military action is an option in dealing with what they see as a serious nuclear threat from Iran, and Mr Ayalon's comments were later echoed by Israel's army chief, Lt Gen Gabi Ashkenazi.
He told Army Radio that Israel had "the right to defend itself and all options are on the table".



SOURCE: Agence France Presse, Monday, September 21, 2009



Israel says all options still open on Iran





(AFP) – JERUSALEM — Israel is keeping its options open to deal with the Iranian nuclear programme, a senior official said on Monday, after the Russian president said he had been assured it would not take military action.


Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made the comments in an interview with US television, excerpts of which were released by the Kremlin on Sunday.

"When Israeli President (Shimon) Peres was visiting me in Sochi recently, he said something very important for all of us: 'Israel does not plan any strikes on Iran, we are a peaceful country and we will not do this'," Medvedev said.

Peres's office declined to comment on the remarks on Monday.

But Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon reiterated what Israeli leaders have said repeatedly -- that the Jewish state is keeping all options open when it comes to its arch-foe.

"All options remain on the table," Ayalon was quoted as saying by his spokesman. "It is certainly not a guarantee."

Ayalon later told Israel's army radio that Medvedev could have misunderstood what Peres said, or that his words may have been wrongly interpreted.

"Notwithstanding our respect for the Russian president, he is not in a position to speak in the name of Israel. There has been no change in our position."

Israeli chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi joined in the debate, saying a nuclear Iran would be a threat to the Middle East and "the entire free world" as well as the Jewish state.

"We all understand that the best way of coping is through international sanctions," he told army radio. "I hope that Iran will understand this.

"I think that if not, Israel has the right to defend itself, and all options are open. The IDF's (Israel Defence Forces) working premise is that we have to be prepared for that possibility, and that is exactly what we are doing."

Widely considered to be the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear power, Israel, like the West, suspects Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under the guise of its nuclear programme, a charge Tehran denies.

Israel considers the Islamic republic its top enemy after repeated statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that it is doomed to be "wiped off the map" and that the Holocaust was a "myth."



SOURCE: Haaretz (Israeli), Monday, September 21, 2009


Deputy FM: Israel still has military option against Iran

By Haaretz Service and Reuters




Israel has not given up the option of a military response to Tehran's nuclear program, Israel's deputy foreign minister said Monday, after Russia's president said his Israeli counterpart had assured him the country would not attack Iran.

Danny Ayalon was asked by Reuters if the comment by President Shimon Peres, as reported on Sunday by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, was a guarantee there would be no Israeli strike on Iran.

"It is certainly not a guarantee," Ayalon replied. "I don't think that, with all due respect, the Russian president is authorized to speak for Israel and certainly we have not taken any option off the table."


In an interview with CNN released on Sunday, Medvedev described an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear sites as "the worst thing that can be imagined." He said Peres made the comment at a meeting in the Russian resort of Sochi in August.

"When he visited me in Sochi, Israeli President Peres said something important for us all: 'Israel does not plan to launch any strikes on Iran. We are a peaceful country and we will not do this'," Medvedev quoted Peres as saying in the interview, which was recorded on Tuesday, according to a Kremlin transcript.

Medvedev's comments came amid speculation that Israel was considering a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities in the belief the Islamic Republic is using them to develop atomic weapons.

The Israel Defense Forces chief staff, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, also said on Monday that he would not rule out a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, saying all options were open in self-defence.

"Israel has the right to defend itself and all options are on the table," Askenazi said during a rare interview on Army Radio when asked if Israel had the capacity to attack if it felt threatened by Tehran.

Meanwhile, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in comments published Monday that concern about Iran remains a top priority and that Israel wants the diplomatic efforts being pursued by the Americans to be limited, well defined and followed by tough sanctions. He reiterated that he removes no option from the table, a reference to the possibility of a military assault on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to the paper.

The minister also said a central challenge for the United States now was how to handle the nuclear weapons of North Korea, the paper reported, because that would greatly influence Iran.

"North Korea is developing long-range missiles in the backyard of China and Russia and nothing happens to them," The New York Times quoted him as saying. "When the Iranian leadership asks themselves, 'Should we be worried or just go through the ritual of defying and cheating?' the answer depends on what happens to North Korea. A coherent move toward blocking nuclear proliferation should start with North Korea. It would have very positive ramifications for blocking Iran."


SOURCE: Haaretz (Israeli), Sunday, September 20, 2009


Report: IDF, U.S. military to simulate Iran missile strike on Israel


By Haaretz Service



The Israel Defense Forces and the U.S. military will soon hold a training exercise in which they will simulate missile attacks on Israel from Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, the pan-Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported Sunday.

The exercise will be carried out as part of the ongoing maneuvers between Israel and the United States, the London-based paper said, which will reportedly be the broadest-ever this year.

According to the paper, the drill is also part of U.S. President Barack Obama's new missile defense plan, under which the Pentagon will initially deploy ships with missile interceptors instead of stationing missile defense systems in Eastern Europe.

The objective of the missile plan is to counter the threat of missile attack from Iran, not Russia.

The report came shortly before Defense Minister Ehud Barak was to leave for the United States, where he was to meet with his counterpart, Robert Gates.

Only last month, the IDF held a joint naval exercise with the U.S. and Turkish militaries in the international waters off Israel's coast, according to Army Radio. Six missile boats, three helicopters and two jets participated in the drill, which simulated search and rescue operations, Army Radio reported.